基于主成分分析的机组威胁与差错管理评价模型  

Evaluation Model of Crew Threat and Error Management Based on Principal Component Analysis

作　　者：朱聃[1] 王一凡[2] ZHU Dan;WANG Yifan(Anhui Sub-bureau,East China Air Traffic Management Bureau CAAC,Hefei 230051,Anhui,China;Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空华东地区空中交通管理局安徽分局,安徽合肥230051 [2]南京航空航天大学,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《民航学报》2020年第5期74-79,共6页Journal of Civil Aviation

摘　　要：为了提升机组威胁与差错管理水平,本文总结了CRM理论的发展历程和TEM理论的基本内容,包括威胁、差错和非预期航空器状态。结合典型案例,采用主成分分析法提出机组威胁与差错管理理论评分模型,详细剖析了机组人员管理和利用各类机组资源的具体过程,揭示了在复杂运行环境中各类飞行事故/事故征候产生的根本原因、升级过程和相应的应对措施,进而明确航空安全与人的行为表现之间的内在联系,评价机组成员差错与威胁管理水平。研究结果显示机组成员通过高水平的差错与威胁管理能够成功避免空难的发生。TEM模型不仅为提高飞行安全裕度提供了努力方向,也为CRM培训内容和培训方式的改进提供有效的研究方法。In order to improve the level of threat and error management, this paper summarizes the development of CRM theory and the basic content of TEM theory, including threat, error and unexpected aircraft status. In combination with typical cases, this paper puts forward the evaluation model of crew threat and error management theory by principal component analysis, and analyzes in detail the specific process of the management and utilization of various crew resources by the crew. It reveals the root causes, upgrading process and corresponding countermeasures of various flight accidents/incidents in complex operating environment, thus clarifies the internal relationship between aviation safety and human behavior and evaluates the level of crew error and threat management. The results show that crew members can successfully avoid air crashes through high-level error and threat management. The TEM model not only provides a direction for improving flight safety margin, but also provides an effective research method for improving the content and mode of CRM training.

关 键 词：安全管理 机组资源管理 威胁和差错管理 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]