雷暴云的新一代天气雷达回波分析及闪电临近预警  

Analysis of new generation weather radar echo and lightning approach warning of thunderstorm cloud

作　　者：朱江 解莉燕 高正南 张娟 徐八林 ZHU Jiang;XIE Li-yan;GAO Zheng-nan;ZHANG Juan;XU Ba-lin(Meteorological Bureau of Puer City,Puer 665099,China;Yunnan Meteorological Bureau,Kunming 650034,China)

机构地区：[1]普洱市气象局,云南普洱665099 [2]云南省大气探测技术保障中心,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第5期916-925,共10页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：云南省气象局科研项目(BZ201701);云南省科技惠民专项(2016RA09603)。

摘　　要：收集2014—2019年普洱天气雷达的5 121个体扫基数据,使用"投影面积"度量云体的方法进行解析、分析和统计,在16个定点半径30 km范围内0℃、-10℃、-20℃层高度上,以5 dBz为步长,对强度达到25~45 dBz回波变化情况进行统计.结果表明:雷电临近预报应重点研究强度达到35 dBz或40 dBz的回波在0℃层或-10℃层上的连续变化特征;结合高山雷达的一些特殊性,兼顾成功率、漏报率和空报率进一步提出,在连续2个体扫以上40 dBz回波出现在0℃层高度并保持连续的特征,是适合普洱市雷电临近预报的较佳条件.经过检验,当条件达到时的探测概率为62%,成功率为50.8%,临近预报的平均时间提前量为25 min.这一指标对高山雷达开展雷暴云回波分析及闪电临近预警有一定的实际应用价值.Five thousand one hundred and twenty-one radar volume-scanning data from 2014 to 2019 are collected, and the method of "projection area" is used to measure cloud amount for analysis and statistics in Pu’er City. The change of echo with the intensity that respectively achieves 25—45 dBz is statistically analyzed, at the 0 ℃,-10 ℃, and-20 ℃ layer heights within 30 km radii of 16 certain-locations, with 5 dBz as the step. It is suggested that the continuous variation characteristics of 35 dBz or 40 dBz echo on 0 ℃ or-10 ℃ layer should be the focus of lightning proximity prediction. Combined with the particularity of high mountain radars, considering the success rate, missing rate and false alarm rate, it is further clarified that the feature of 40 dBz echo appearing at the 0 ℃height and keeping continuous above two consecutive volume scans is a better condition for approaching lightning prediction in Pu’er area. It is verified that the detection probability is 62%, the success rate is 50.8%, and the average time advance of proximity forecast is 25 minutes, when the needed condition is reached. This characteristic should play a certain role in the analysis of thunderstorm cloud echo and the early warning of lightning approaching.

关 键 词：雷暴云 雷达回波强度 投影面积 变化特征 临近预警 普洱市 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]