基于相似洪水动态展延的水库防洪调度决策方法及其应用  

Real-time Flood Control Operation Method of Reservoir Based on Dynamic Extension of Similar Flood and Its Application

作　　者：李映辉 钟平安[2] 朱非林[2] 杨敏芝[2] 李想 LI Ying-hui;ZHONG Ping-an;ZHU Fei-lin;YANG Min-zhi;LI Xiang(College of Agriculture and Water Conservancy Engineering,Suihua University,Suihua 152061,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]绥化学院农业与水利工程学院,黑龙江绥化152061 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第10期39-43,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：黑龙江省省属高等学校基本科研业务费基础研究项目青年项目(YWK10236200135);黑龙江省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202010236002)。

摘　　要：鉴于实时洪水预报预见期难以满足水库实时防洪调度决策的时间尺度需求,相似洪水动态识别及展延是提升洪水情势预见性的有效途径。因此,将相似洪水动态展延相关理论与水库防洪优化调度模型相结合,提出了基于相似洪水动态展延的防洪调度决策方法,并以池潭水库为例,分别从展延水量效益、防洪决策效益分析相似洪水动态展延决策方法的适用性。结果表明,提出的水库防洪调度决策方法可有效降低决策风险、保障了上下游防洪安全。Because the lead time of real-time flood forecasting is difficult to meet the time scale demand of real-time flood control decision-making,the dynamic identification and extension of similar flood is an effective way to improve the flood situation prediction.Therefore,a flood control decision-making method is proposed by coupling the similar flood dynamic extension theory and the reservoir flood control optimization dispatching model.Taking the Chitan Reservoir as an example,the applicability of the extension flood efficiency and flood control decision-making benefit to the similar flood dynamic extension decision-making method was analyzed.The results show that the proposed reservoir flood control scheduling decision-making method can effectively reduce the decision-making risk and ensure the safety of upstream and downstream flood control.

关 键 词：相似洪水 动态识别 水库 防洪调度 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]