中国地质灾害成因分析  

Research on the origins of geological disasters in China

作　　者：刘传正 陈春利 LIU Chuanzheng;CHEN Chunli(Consultative Centre of Geo-Hazard Mitigation,MNR,Beijing,100081)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部地质灾害技术指导中心,北京100081

出　　处：《地质论评》2020年第5期1334-1348,共15页Geological Review

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目课题“基于地质气象大数据的区域地质灾害高精度预警模型研发”(编号:2018YFC1505503);国家财政事业专项(编号:1211221481001)的成果。

摘　　要：中国地质环境的特殊性决定了地质灾害的多样性、易发性及其区域变异性。地质灾害的发生不仅取决于地质环境演变,还与区域降雨渗流、冻融作用、地震损伤和人类活动等多种因素叠加作用密切相关。基于大数据思维,作者统计研究了中国年均降雨量、地质灾害数量、多年降雨距平、死亡失踪人数、直接经济损失等参数的相关关系。提出了重合度概念及其计算方法,计算了1998~2018年各年度降雨正距平分布区与地质灾害易发区的重合度,得出地质灾害危害程度与重合度正相关。例如,1998年年均降雨量距平10.5%,重合度达60%,危害损失大;2010年年均降雨量距平7.8%,重合度高达65%,危害损失巨大;2011年年均降雨量距平为-9.8%,重合度只有10%,危害损失小;2018年年均降雨量距平5.9%,但重合度仅15%,危害损失小。研究证明,中国地质灾害防治成效是显著的,灾情大小与年度降雨作用和地质灾害易发区的重合度正相关,"人努力,天帮忙"的说法是有一定道理的。The geological features of China determine the diversity,susceptibility and regional variability of its geological disasters.The occurrence of geological disasters results from the evolution of geological environments,but related closely to multiple factors such as raining seepage,unfreezing,seismic action and human activities.The correlations of some factors is researched which consists of number of geological disasters,casualty,direct economic losses,annual precipitation and precipitation anomaly percentage.A new concept,ratio of coincidence and its computing method,are proposed in this paper.The ratio of coincidence expresses a portion of that the areas with 20%precipitation anomaly matches in susceptible areas of geological disasters.For instance,in 1998,the precipitation anomaly is 10.5%and the ratio of coincidence is 60%in which occurred with great losses.In 2010,the precipitation anomaly is 7.8%and the ratio of coincidence is 65%in which occurred with heavy losses.In 2011,the precipitation anomaly is-9.8%and the ratio of coincidence is 10%in which occurred with lighter losses.In 2018,the precipitation anomaly is 5.9%,but the ratio of coincidence is less than 15%in which occurred with less losses.It is found,total than geological disasters decrease along time,but economic losses increases in single event.There is a positive correlation between the size of the disaster and the triggering factors,especially the ratio of coincidence between the strong rainfall and the geological disaster prone areas is important.Therefore,effective reduction of geological disasters depends on human efforts,but extreme natural force,such as strong raining in a long time,is not neglected in disaster reduction.

关 键 词：地质灾害 重合度指数 降雨渗流 冻融作用 地震损伤 人类活动 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]