基于入库洪水随机-模糊性的土石坝漫顶失事风险分析  

Analysis on overtopping failure risk of earth-rock dam based on random-fuzziness of reservoir inflow flood

作　　者：黄灵芝[1] 云甲 司政[1] 李守义[1] HUANG Lingzhi;YUN Jia;SI Zheng;LI Shouyi(School of Water Resources and Hydropower,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2020年第9期766-772,共7页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51609200,51879217);中国博士后科学基金项目(编号:2015M582765XB);西安理工大学科技创新计划项目(编号:2016CX24)。

摘　　要：漫顶失事是土石坝最主要的溃决原因之一,实际中土石坝漫顶失事是一个模糊系统。以模糊数学理论为基础,采用模糊概率的概念建立系统失事的模糊风险数学模型,采用模糊数学中的隶属函数来表示失事程度。针对不同的置信水平,量化漫顶失事的水位区间,根据模糊极限状态方程计算出模糊风险,并求解当前置信水平及风险程度下对应的坝前水位、风浪壅高的发生区间。分析表明,随着置信水平α的增大,模糊风险的区间范围逐渐缩小;当α=1.0时,即不考虑模糊性,模糊集合演变为精确的经典集合。模糊风险的引入更能客观反应漫顶失事的出现是一个区间,而非突变。根据工程的实际情况选定置信水平或可接受风险范围,进而确定水库的坝前运行水位范围,可为水库调度提供新参考。Overtopping failure is one of the most major reasons for breaking of earth-rock dam.In fact,overtopping failure pf earth-rock dam is a fuzzy system.Based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics,this paper uses the concept of fuzzy probability to establish the fuzzy probability mathematical model of system failure,and uses the membership function of fuzzy mathematics to express the degree of wreck.The water level range of overtopping accident is quantified according to different confidence levels,the fuzzy risk is calculated through the fuzzy risk limit state equation,and the occurrence intervals of the dam front water level and the storm wave height for different confidence level and risk degree are solved.The analysis shows that with the increase of confidence levelα,the interval range of fuzzy risk decreases gradually;whenα=1.0,the fuzzy set evolves into a precise classical set without considering the fuzziness.The introduction of fuzzy risk can more objectively reflect that the occurrence of overtopping accidents is an interval rather than a mutation.Moreover,the confidence level or acceptable risk range is selected according to the actual situation of the project,and then the operation water level range in front of the dam of the reservoir is determined,which can provide a new reference for reservoir operation.

关 键 词：模糊风险 土石坝 漫顶失事 置信水平 坝前水位 

分 类 号：TV641.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]