水资源承载风险的理论、方法与实践  

The theory,method and practice of water resources carrying risk

作　　者：吕爱锋[1,2,3] 韩雁 张士锋[1,2] 李丽娟[1,2] 朱文彬[1,2] Lyu Aifeng;Han Yan;Zhang Shifeng;Li Lijuan;Zhu Wenbin

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国水利》2020年第19期47-51,共5页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(项目号2016YFC0401307)。

摘　　要：阐述了基于风险理论的水资源承载力概念与内涵,分析了水资源承载风险的要素组成,构建了基于水量、水质、水域、水流的水资源承载力系统,从水资源承载系统脆弱性和危险性两方面发展了水资源承载力风险的评估方法,系统评估了气候变化、城镇化以及产业结构变化背景下全国水资源承载力的风险,并对水资源承载风险在水资源管理中的应用进行了展望。水资源承载力风险研究为水资源管理与风险预警提供了科学支撑,对于区域水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。This article discussed the concept and connotation of water resources carrying capacity based on risk theory,analyzed the element constitution of water resources carrying risk,built water resources carrying capacity system based on water yield,water quality,water area and flow,developed risk evaluation methods of water resources carrying capacity from fragility and risk,systematically evaluated national water resources carrying risk under climate change,urbanization and industrial structure change.Finally the article forecasted the application of water resources carrying risk in water resources management.The researches on water resources carrying risk provides scientific supports for water resources management and risk early warning,and has important meaning to regional water resources sustainable utilization.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 风险 理论 方法 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]