基于作物模型脆弱性判别的河南省夏玉米干旱风险评估  

Drought Risk Assessment of Summer Maize in Henan Province Based on Vulnerability Analysis by Crop Model

作　　者：任丽伟 薛昌颖[2] 张宇星[3] 张弘[2] REN Liwei;XUE Changying;ZHANG Yuxing;ZHANG Hong(Hebi Meteorological Service,Hebi 456750;CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agricultural meteorological Safe-guard and Applied Technique/Henan Institute of Meteorological Science,Zhengzhou 450003;Henan Meteorologi-cal Service,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]鹤壁市气象局,河南鹤壁456750 [2]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室/河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003 [3]河南省气象局,郑州450003

出　　处：《东北农业科学》2020年第4期79-83,共5页Journal of Northeast Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河南省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(Z201603、Z201804);中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013M29)。

摘　　要：本文将作物生长模拟模型模拟方法引入灾害风险评价中,与统计方法相结合,利用河南省地面观测站的历史气象资料、夏玉米生长发育期观测资料和相关农业生产社会统计资料,依据自然灾害风险评价理论,构建河南省夏玉米干旱评价指标和综合风险评估模型,对河南省不同地区夏玉米生长季的干旱风险进行了定量评价。结果表明:河南省夏玉米生长季干旱危险性最大的阶段主要是播种-出苗期和乳熟-成熟期,空间分布上主要是北部和西部危险性最大,这主要是降水量的时间和空间分布不均影响的。可见,在农业主产区加强农田水利设施建设,改善农田灌溉条件是降低干旱风险、保证农业稳产的最有效途径。In this paper,the method of crop growth simulation is introduced into disaster risk assessment and combined with statistical method.Based on the theory of natural disaster risk assessment,the drought evaluation index and comprehensive risk assessment model of summer maize in Henan Province were constructed by using the historical weather data,the observation data of summer maize and the related social statistical data of agricultural production.The results showed that the biggest drought risk stage of summer maize growth season in Henan province was mainly the sowing to emergence stage and milky to maturity stage.In terms of spatial distribution,the northern and western regions are the most dangerous,which is mainly affected by the uneven distribution of precipitation in time and space.Therefore,strengthening the construction of irrigation and water conservancy facilities and improving irrigation conditions in major agricultural producing areas are the most effective ways to reduce drought risks and ensure stable agricultural yields.

关 键 词：夏玉米 干旱 风险评估 作物模型 水分亏缺指数 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]