经济发展、国际农产品价格波动与出口——基于引力模型的实证分析  

Economic Development,Price Fluctuations of International Agricultural Product and Export——An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：陈丹霞 CHEN Danxia(Baoan Construction Investment Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518101,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市宝建投智能科技有限公司,广东深圳518101

出　　处：《东北农业科学》2020年第4期95-100,共6页Journal of Northeast Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：2019年广东省普通高校人文社科类项目(2019KZDZX2030);2019年度广东海洋大学人文社科项目(C19079)。

摘　　要：基于农产品国际贸易本身不仅仅具有经济职能,也具有一定程度上的政治关联。本文运用引力模型分析中国农产品出口价格波动对农产品出口贸易的影响及其传导机制,研究发现:中国当前参与的FTA对农产品贸易具有推动作用,但效果有限;农产品出口价格波动对出口存在显著的抑制效应;中国农产品出口价格波动来源于生产成本波动与人民币汇率波动。据此,应从加强南南合作、扩大自贸区网络、降低农产品生产成本对中国农产品贸易的影响以及加快推动人民币国际化四个方面促进我国农产品出口贸易发展。International trade of agricultural products has not only economic functions,but also political connection to a certain extent.This paper uses the gravity model to analyze the impact of China’s agricultural export price fluctuation on agricultural product export trade and its transmission mechanism.The results showed that China’s current FTA can promote the trade of agricultural products,but the effect is limited.The export price fluctuation of agricultural products has a significant inhibitory effect on export.China’s agricultural export price fluctuation comes from the fluctuation of production cost and RMB exchange rate.Therefore,we should strengthen South-South cooperation,expand the network of free trade zones,reduce the impact of agricultural production costs on China’s agricultural trade,and accelerate the internationalization of RMB to promote the development of China’s agricultural export trade.

关 键 词：价格波动 引力模型 贸易组织 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]