印太战略视角下南海问题国际化的特点与前景  

Internationalization of South China Sea Issue under Indo-Pacific Strategy

作　　者：齐皓 QI Hao(School of English and International Studies,Beijing Foreign Studies University,Beijing 100089)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学英语学院美国研究中心,北京100089

出　　处：《南洋问题研究》2020年第3期67-81,共15页Southeast Asian Affairs

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“南海争端中美国的战略定位与政策手段研究”(17BGJ058)。

摘　　要：2017年以来,在美国出台印太战略前后,南海问题出现了新一轮“国际化”趋势,美国等域外国家不断加强在南海的军事存在,以更加灵活多元的方式协调在南海的安全合作,试图在“法理”与安全层面对中国施加更大的压力。它们加强在南海军事存在的行径,将提高海上军事对峙与冲突的概率,刺激南海国家已经趋缓的权利主张,为南海相对稳定的局势增加新的变数。尽管美国等域外国家对南海问题存在一致的原则共识,但仍面临一些严重的障碍,战略层面上各国对印太战略的目标存在分歧,政策层面表现为介入方式的分歧,介入能力的不足,以及如何继续获得东盟国家的支持等问题。鉴于新一轮“南海问题国际化”带来的挑战及问题,中国需要对南海的安全形势作出全面细致的评估,在坚守国家主权及安全利益的同时,管控南海对峙及冲突风险,继续与东盟国家发展稳定可预期的合作关系,减少“域内外国家军事安全互动”对稳定南海局势的负面影响。South China Sea issue is taking on newly a trend of internationalization since 2017,characterized by more countries outside the region getting involved under the framework of Indo-Pacific strategy.The involved parties are pushing toward cooperation of higher flexibility and assertiveness,aiming to impose more legal pressure on China’s claims and moves in South China Sea.Increasing presence of naval forces in South China Sea largely raise the possibility of maritime confrontation,producing updated variables to stability in the region.Nevertheless,the countries in the camp of the U.S.have a long way to go before making a consensus on how to deal with China strategically in South China Sea and some of them suffer from insufficiency of naval capabilities to counter China.Moreover,ASEAN countries is holding a generally negative view of U.S.strategic credibility in the region which greatly reduced U.S.legitimacy to stay on.Being confronted with potential tensions or even conflicts with the U.S.camp,more than enough restraint and patience would be necessary for China to take the situation in control while maintaining its sovereign claims and pushing for a long-term settlement in South China Sea.

关 键 词：南海问题国际化 印太战略 四国安全对话 南海行为准则 

分 类 号：D815.3[政治法律—国际关系]