年际序列分析的2种新方法与旱涝预测模拟--以太湖流域2017年降雨为例  

Two New Methods of Interannual Series Analysis&Simulation of Drought&Flood Forecast:Taking 2017 Rainfall in Tai Lake Basin as an Example

作　　者：秦建国[1] 尤征懿 陈寅达 朱前维 陈娟[1] 朱玲[1] 朱立国[1] 戈禹[1] 范丽萍[1] 王琳棋 QIN Jian-guo;YOU Zheng-yi;CHEN Yin-da;ZHU Qian-wei;CHEN Juan;ZHU Ling;ZHU Li-guo;GE Yu;FAN Li-ping;WANG Lin-qi(Wuxi Branch,Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Hydrology&Water Resources Survey,Wuxi214031,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局无锡分局,江苏无锡214031

出　　处：《中国市政工程》2020年第5期88-91,120,共5页China Municipal Engineering

摘　　要：为推进中长期预报工作,利用2种新方法—分段法和细部特征法,围绕代表性雨量站的实测资料,探讨太湖地区年际旱涝的趋势性、周期性和突变性等规律,完成2017年度旱涝的预测模拟和后期对比分析工作。研究表明,无锡站年际降雨序列分成特征不同的3个时段,每个时段节点对应一次气候突变,这是旱涝演化的自然选择;传统预测方法不能识别转折点,并具有较多的不确定性,只有在气候突变及相关辅助方法的基础上,才能解决时间序列分析中存在的问题;通过2种新方法可识别气候突变的转折点、探明旱涝周期的变化规律,实现太湖地区旱涝趋势的模拟;与传统方法相结合,能完成降雨量的预估,大幅度提高太湖地区旱涝预测水平,综合预测的成功率可达60%以上,旱涝趋势预测模拟的成功率更高。研究成果解决无锡站年际降雨周期性分析的难题,促进单站单要素中长期预测分析工作,改变太湖地区气候无法预测的局面。To promote the medium&longterm forecast work,the 2 new methods,namely subsection method&detail feature method,are used to explore the trend,periodicity&mutation of the interannual drought&flood in the Tai Lake region based on the measured data of representative rainfall stations;and to complete the forecast simulation&late comparative analysis of drought&flood in 2017.The results show that the interannual rainfall series of Wuxi Station is divided into 3 periods with different characteristics,and each time node corresponds to a climate mutation,which is a natural selection of drought&flood evolution;the traditional prediction methods cannot identify the turning point,and have more uncertainty.Only on the basis of climate mutation&related auxiliary methods,it can solve the problems in time series analysis.The 2 new methods can identify the turning point of climate change,explore the change law of drought&flood cycle,and realize the simulation of drought&flood trend in the Tai Lake region;combined with traditional methods,it can complete the prediction of rainfall,greatly improve the level of drought&flood prediction in the Tai Lake region,the success rate of comprehensive prediction can reach more than 60%,and the success rate of drought&flood trend prediction simulation is higher.The research results solve the problem of periodicity analysis of interannual rainfall at Wuxi Station,promote the medium&long-term prediction and analysis of single station&single factor,and change the situation of unpredictable climate in the Tai Lake region.

关 键 词：非典型周期 模拟 分段法 细部特征法 气候突变 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]