城乡最低生活保障制度对贫困脆弱性的改善效应研究——基于PSM-DID方法的实证分析  

Improvement Effect of Urban and Rural Subsistence Allowance System on Poverty Vulnerability in China:Based on PSM-DID Method

作　　者：张栋[1] ZHANG Dong(School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《财贸研究》2020年第9期53-63,共11页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：中国人民大学“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”资助。

摘　　要：使用2012年与2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据集,构建两期平衡面板数据,基于PSM-DID方法,就城乡最低生活保障制度对贫困脆弱性的改善效果进行测量与比较。结果表明:最低生活保障制度对低保家庭的贫困脆弱性具有显著的改善效果,能够有效地降低低保家庭在未来继续陷入贫困的可能性;最低生活保障制度对低保家庭的减贫效应存在显著的城乡与区域性差异,农村最低生活保障制度减贫效应更加显著,西部地区的减贫效应大于东、中部地区。应重视对于低保家庭贫困脆弱性的测量与识别,将其纳入城乡低保贫困判别条件,逐步建立起事前预测、事中监测、事后检测的覆盖全过程的动态贫困测量与识别机制,以有效化解低保家庭先脱贫后返贫的困局;应适度调整最低生活保障制度在城乡及区域之间减贫效应的差异性,以确保其在城乡及区域之间均衡发展,实现城乡与区域的全面脱贫。Using household tracking survey data sets in 2012 and 2014 in China,two phases of balanced panel data are constructed to measure and compare improvement effect of minimum living allowance system on poverty vulnerability in urban and rural areas based on the PSM-DID method.Results show that the minimum living allowance system has a significant improvement effect on the poverty vulnerability of the low-income families,and can effectively reduce the possibility of the low-income families falling into poverty in the future.There are significant differences between urban and rural areas and regions in the poverty reduction effect of the minimum living allowance system on the families living on subsistence allowances.The poverty reduction effect of the system in rural areas is more significant,and the poverty reduction effect of the western region is greater than that of the eastern and central regions.Therefore,attention should be paid to measurement and identification of poverty vulnerability of low-income families,which should be included in discrimination conditions of urban and rural poverty,and a dynamic poverty measurement and identification mechanism covering the whole process of pre-prediction,in-process monitoring and post-detection should be gradually established,so as to effectively solve the dilemma of poverty alleviation first and then return to poverty.To ensure balanced development of the minimum living allowance system between urban and rural areas and regions and realize the overall poverty alleviation between urban and rural areas and regions,differences of the minimum living allowance system in poverty reduction between urban and rural areas and regions should be appropriately adjusted.

关 键 词：城乡最低生活保障制度 减贫效应 贫困脆弱性 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]