基于公共网络数据的湖北毗邻六省市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情分析  

Analysis of the epidemic of COVID-19 in six neighboring provinces of Hubei based on the network data

作　　者：蒋英[1] 张红[2] JIANG Ying;ZHANG Hong(Department of Cardiovascular Surgery,XiangyaHospital Central South University,Changsha,Hunan 410008,China;Nursing department,Xiangya Hospital Central South University,Changsha,Hunan 410008,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学湘雅医院心脏大血管外科,长沙410008 [2]中南大学湘雅医院护理部,长沙410008

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2020年第5期6-10,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖南省卫生健康委科研计划课题(B2019197)。

摘　　要：目的分析我国湖北毗邻六省市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的发展及其变化。方法整理国家卫生健康委员会和各地政府于2020年1月11日至2020年3月22日发布的新冠疫情数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型,按日均变化百分比(Day percentage change,DPC)、平均日均变化百分比(Average day percentage change,ADPC)对累计确诊病例数、每日新增确诊数、日均新增确诊病例数等进行趋势分析。结果截至2020年3月22日,湖北毗邻六省市共累计报告确诊病例5036例,河南、湖南和安徽居前三,分别为1272例、1018例和990例,合计占65.13%,湖北毗邻六省市累计确诊数发展趋势拐点为1月24日和2月5日,期间平均增速[ADPC(95%CI):5.27%(3.71%~6.85%),P<0.05],与湖北累计确诊数拐点为2月2日和2月15日,期间平均增速[ADPC(95%CI:10.77(9.12%~12.44%),P<0.05]不同。距六省市疫情最末例报告(2月28日,湖南)28d、21d、14d、7d的日均新增病例,分别为116.93、55.48、12.93、1.86例,呈明显下降趋势[DPC(95%CI):-79.04(-88.95%^-43.62%),P<0.05]。湖北毗邻六省市合计每日新增病例数高峰位于2月3日(365例),拐点为2月5日,呈现急剧上升[DPC(95%CI):25.53(8.09%~45.78%),P<0.05],后迅速下降的趋势[DPC(95%CI):-28.46(-34.40%~21.98%),P<0.05]。湖北以外六省市合计病死率为0.79%,低于湖北(4.65%)。结论湖北毗邻六省市在防控内地输入性风险初见成效,应及时总结优化策略以防未来可能的第二次传播。Objective To analyze the development and changes of novel coronavirus diseases 2019(COVID-19)in the six neighboring provinces of Hubei.Methods The COVID-19 epidemic data of Hubei and its six neighboring provinces released by the National Health and Health Commission and local governments from January 11,2020 to March 22,2020 was collected.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of cumulative confirmed cases,daily new confirmed cases and daily average confirmed cases according to the daily change percentage(DPC)and average daily percentage change(ADPC).Results As of March 22,2020,a total of 5036 confirmed cases were reported in the six neighboring provinces of Hubei,among which Henan,Hunan and Anhui ranked the top three,with 1272,1018,and 990 cases,respectively,accounting for 65.13%of the total cases.The inflection points of the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the six provinces were January 24 and February 5,with an average growth rate of 5.27%[ADPC(95%CI)=5.27%(3.71%,6.85%),P<0.05)],which was different from Hubei where the inflection points of the cumulative diagnosis number were February 2 and February 15,with an average growth rate of 10.77%[ADPC(95%CI)=10.77%(9.12%,12.44%),P<0.05].The average number of new cases per day in 28 days,21 days,14 days and 7 days from the last case report(February 28,Hunan)was 116.93,55.48,12.93 and 1.86,respectively,showing a significant downward trend(DPC 95%CI=-79.04(-88.95,-43.62)%,P<0.05).The peak number of new cases per day in the six neighboring provinces occurred on February 4(309 cases),and the inflection point was February 5,showing a sharp increase(DPC=25.53%,P<0.05),and then a rapid decline(DPC=-28.46%,P<0.05).The total case fatality rate of the six provinces was 0.79%,which was lower than that of Hubei(4.65%).Conclusion The measures taken by the six provinces and cities adjacent to Hubei Province in the prevention and control of domestic imported risks are active and effective.It is necessary to summarize and optimize the strategies in time to p

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 疫情 趋势分析 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]