应用EPP/Spectrum模型估计与预测武汉市成人艾滋病疫情  

Estimation and prediction of adult AIDS epidemic in Wuhan using EPP/Spectrum model

作　　者：罗莉[1] 许骏[1] 胡荣[1] 王夏[1] LUO Li;XYU Jun;HU Rong;WANG Xia(Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan,Hubei 430015,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉市疾病预防控制中心,武汉430015

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2020年第5期45-48,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的应用艾滋病疫情估计和预测软件包(EPP)和Spectrum模型估计和预测武汉市艾滋病疫情特征和发展趋势。方法收集、核实和整理武汉市各年度病例报告、哨点监测、专题调查、孕产妇筛查、羁押场所报表、抗病毒治疗、高危人群检测等工作数据,运用EPP-Spectrum模型进行曲线拟合和校正,组织专家论证并形成最终结果。结果模型预测武汉市成人HIV感染率自2003年后明显上升,至2013年左右达到峰值,之后至2019年一直维持在较高水平,2019年成人的HIV感染率约为9.0/万,2020年以后成人感染率将出现下降趋势。各类人群中,感染者配偶/性伴的感染率最高,其次为男男人群。现存活HIV/AIDS人数自2000年开始逐渐上升,2022年估计现存活人数将达到8000人左右(95%CI:5421~9754)。从性别年龄构成上来看,HIV感染者的主要年龄分布为青壮年,男性尤其是25~50岁男性是主要的受累人群。结论武汉市当前仍属于艾滋病低流行地区,男男人群仍然是今后几年的干预重点。Objective To estimate and predict the characteristics and development trend of the AIDS epidemic situation in Wuhan by using Estimation and Projection Package(EPP)and Spectrum model.Methods Data from HIV/AIDS case reports,sentinel surveillance,special investigations,maternal screenings,detention places reports,antiviral treatments,and screenings of high-risk populations was collected,verified and sorted out.Estimation and projection package(EPP)and Spectrum models were used to fit and modify the curves.The final results were formed after consultation and discussion with experts.Results The EPP/Spectrum model predicted that the HIV infection rate of adults in Wuhan increased significantly after 2003,reached the peak around 2013,and then maintained a high level until 2019.The HIV infection rate of adults in 2019 was about 9.0/105,and the adult infection rate would show a downward trend after 2020.Among all kinds of populations,the infection rate of spouses/sexual partners of already infected people was the highest,with the infection rate in men who have sex with men(MSM)ranking second.The number of people living with HIV/AIDS increased gradually from 2000,and by 2022 the number is estimated to be around 8000(95%CI:5421-9754).In regards to gender and age,the main distribution of HIV infections was among young adults,especially men aged 25-50 years old.Conclusion Wuhan currently is a low prevalence area of AIDS.MSM will still be the focus of intervention in the following years.

关 键 词：EPP-Spectrum模型 艾滋病 疫情估计 预测 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]