模拟退火法计算地电断面解的置信区间——以大柏舍台为例  

Confidence Interval of the Geoelectric Section Solution Obtained from Simulated Annealing Method—Taking Dabaishe Seismic Station as an Example

作　　者：宋昭 赵志远 张朋杰 陈凯男 罗娜 SONG Zhao;ZHAO Zhiyuan;ZHANG Pengjie;CHEN Kainan;LUO Na(Hongshan Standard Seismic Station,Xingtai 054000,China)

机构地区：[1]红山基准地震台,河北邢台054001

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2020年第4期49-54,共6页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：河北省地震科技星火计划项目(DZ20180316001)。

摘　　要：为定量分析地电断面解计算结果的可靠性,将蒙特卡洛误差传播方法引入到模拟退火法的计算中,初步提出了对模拟退火法求解结果进行置信区间计算分析的思路和方法;以大柏舍台为例,利用RES1D软件得到电测深自动解释结果,并根据需求适当调整层参数作为模拟退火过程的初始模型,借助蒙特卡洛误差传播方法计算反演结果的置信区间。结果表明,蒙特卡洛误差传播方法可以较好地获得地电断面解的置信区间,从而定量展示模拟退火法计算结果的可靠性以及地电断面解的置信范围;大柏舍台地电阻率夏天高值、冬天低值以及近年来的趋势上升变化与气温、降雨以及地下水位变化密切相关,这与一维影响系数理论分析结果相一致,也在一定程度上反映了地电断面解的可靠性。In order to quantitatively analyze the reliability of the geoelectric section solution,the Monte Carlo error propagation method is introduced into the calculation of simulated annealing method,and the idea and method of calculating and analyzing the confidence interval of the solution of simulated annealing method are proposed preliminarily.Taking Dabaishe seismic station as an example,we first obtain the automatic interpretation result of electrical sounding by RES1D software,and then adjust the layer parameters appropriately as the initial model of simulated annealing process.Finally,the confidence interval of inversion results is calculated by Monte Carlo error propagation method.The results show that the Monte Carlo error propagation method can obtain the confidence interval of the geoelectric section solution better,so as to quantitatively show the reliability of the simulated annealing method and the confidence interval of the geoelectric section solution;the high value of the resistivity in summer,low value in winter and the trend rising change of Dabaishe seismic station in recent years are related to the change of groundwater level,which is consistent with the theoretical analysis of one-dimensional influence coefficient,reflect the reliability of the solution of geoelectric section to a certain extent.

关 键 词：模拟退火 电测深 置信区间 影响系数 大柏舍台 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]