Impact of Wheat Price Changes on Farmers’Willingness to Participate in Fallow  

小麦价格变化对农户休耕参与意愿的影响研究

作　　者：CHENG Hao XIE Hualin 成皓;谢花林(江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院,南昌330013;江西财经大学生态文明研究院,南昌330013)

机构地区：[1]School of Public Finance and Public Administration,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China [2]Institute of Ecological Civilization,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2020年第6期589-597,共9页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Natural Science Foundation of China(41961035,41971243);The Academic and Technical Leaders Funding Program for Major Disciplines in Jiangxi Province(20172BCB22011);Natural Science Foundation in Jiangxi Province(20202BAB213014);The Technology Foundation of Jiangxi Education Department of China(GJJ180285)。

摘　　要：After operating for four years,the fallow project in the groundwater funnel area of the North China Plain has produced an initial water-saving effect.However,groundwater funnel remediation is a long-term process,and grain price changes over time may affect farmers’willingness to participate in fallow.Based on the estimation by the Cobb-Douglas production function,the relationship between farmers’satisfaction with fallow compensation and planting income is analyzed based on survey data collected from farming households in Hebei,a typical province located in the groundwater funnel area.Using this data,the impact of wheat price changes on farmers’willingness to participate in fallow is simulated.The results indicate wheat price changes affect farmers’expected planting income and consequently their willingness to fallow;88%of farmers would be unwilling to participate in fallow with a 0.1 yuan per 500 g increase in the wheat price,whereas 71.4%of farmers would be willing to participate in fallow with a 0.2 yuan per 500 g decrease in the price.Finally,some policy implications are proposed,such as the recommendation that the fallow compensation should be adjusted according to the wheat price multiplied by the average wheat yield of the three years before fallow in the North China Plain.华北平原地下水漏斗区冬小麦休耕试点已实施四年有余,节水效果已初步显现,但地下水漏斗的修复是一个长期的过程,粮食价格变化很可能会影响农户的休耕参与意愿。本文基于2016年河北省衡水市冀州市和桃城区的农户调研数据,在分析案例区未参与休耕农户的基本特征、家庭收入情况以及休耕补偿金额满意度的基础上,利用农户的投入产出数据估计了案例区的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,并分析了农户休耕补偿金额满意度与冬小麦种植收入之间的关系。其次,模拟了小麦价格变化对农户休耕参与意愿的影响。结果显示:小麦价格变化会影响农户的预期种植收入,进而通过休耕补偿满意度影响他们的休耕参与意愿;当小麦价格每斤上涨0.1元时,有88%的农户不愿继续参与休耕,而当小麦价格每斤下降0.2元时,有71.4%的农户亩均净收益要小于当前休耕补偿标准,尽管在补偿标准不变的情况下农户休耕的参与度高,但会增加政府的财政负担。因此,本文提出应制定灵活的休耕补偿标准,如将现行的华北平原冬小麦休耕补偿标准调整为休耕前三年的平均小麦产量乘以补偿当年的小麦收购价。

关 键 词：wheat price change FALLOW ecological compensation FARMERS 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F326.11