浙江省县域旅游经济增长的空间溢出效应  

Spatial spillover effects of county-scale tourism economic growth in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：陈晓艳 徐冬[3] 黄睿 胡小海 黄震方[2] 张郴[2] CHEN Xiaoyan;XU Dong;HUANG Rui;HU Xiaohai;HUANG Zhenfang;ZHANG Chen(School of Humanities,Jiangsu University of Technology,Changzhou 213001,Jiangsu,China;School of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210046,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Vocational University of Industry Technology,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏理工学院人文学院,江苏常州213001 [2]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [3]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210046 [4]南京工业职业技术大学经济管理学院,南京210023

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2020年第9期1512-1521,共10页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41671137,41701162,41871141);国家社会科学基金项目(19BJL053);江苏理工学院社科基金项目(KYY19527)。

摘　　要：论文以浙江省65个县域单元为例,综合运用探索性空间数据分析和空间杜宾模型,实证了2004—2016年浙江省县域旅游经济增长及其影响因素的空间溢出效应。结果表明:①研究期内浙江省县域旅游经济整体表现出较强的空间依赖性,局部空间关联类型以高—高和低—低集聚为主,高—高集聚区主要位于中心市区,低—低集聚区主要位于浙西和浙南等地。旅游经济增长的空间自相关性表明考察其演化路径时不可忽视空间效应的存在。②浙江省县域入境和国内旅游经济增长均存在显著的空间溢出效应,本地入境和国内旅游经济每增长1%,将会带动邻近县域入境和国内旅游经济分别增长0.192%和0.249%。经济发展水平、旅游资源禀赋、旅游基础设施和区位交通条件等均具有显著的空间溢出效应,忽视旅游经济增长的空间效应,将会高估这些因素的作用强度。③驱动旅游经济增长的各影响因素的作用强度和影响路径存在显著差异,未来应充分关注入境和国内旅游经济增长的空间依赖特征,将驱动旅游经济增长的各因素齐抓并举,方可实现县域旅游经济的高质量发展。Taking 65 county-scale units in Zhejiang Province as an example, the exploratory spatial data analysis and Spatial Durbin Model were comprehensively used in this study to demonstrate the spatial spillover effects of county-scale tourism economic growth and its influencing factors in 2004-2016. The results show that: 1)During the study period, the tourism economies of the 65 county-scale units showed a strong spatial agglomeration. The local spatial associations were mainly high-high and low-low agglomeration. High-high agglomeration areas were mainly located in the central urban areas, and low-low agglomeration areas were mainly located in western and southern Zhejiang Province. The spatial autocorrelation of tourism economic growth indicates that the existence of spatial effects cannot be ignored when examining its evolution path. 2)There is a significant spatial spillover effect in the counties’ inbound and domestic tourism economic growth, and every 1% growth in local inbound and domestic tourism economy will drive the inbound and domestic tourism economy of neighboring counties to increase by 0.192% and 0.249%, respectively. The influencing factors of county-scale tourism economy in the province, such as economic development level, tourism resources endowments, tourism infrastructures, location and traffic conditions, and so on, all have significant spatial spillover effects. Overlooking the spatial effects of tourism economic growth will overestimate the strength of these factors. 3) There are significant differences in the strengths and impacts of various influencing factors of tourism economic growth. In the future, we should pay more attention to the spatial dependence characteristics of the growth in both inbound and domestic tourism economy, and make every effort to promote the economic growth of tourism in order to achieve the high-quality development of regional tourism industry.

关 键 词：县域旅游经济 空间溢出效应 空间杜宾模型 浙江省 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]