“一带一路”沿线国家油气投资环境影响因素研究——基于RM-BP-DEMATEL模型的实证分析  

Study on the Impact Factors of Oil and Gas Investment Environment to the Countries Along the Belt and Road:An Empirical Analysis Based on RM-BP-DEMATEL Model

作　　者：崔明欣[1] 李可欣 张琼[1] CUI Mingxin;LI Kexin;ZHANG Qiong(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Petroleum University,Daqing,Heilongjiang 163318,China)

机构地区：[1]东北石油大学经济管理学院,黑龙江大庆163318

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第5期11-18,共8页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL010);黑龙江省教育厅科研专项(WKJD201605);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(15YJA630074)。

摘　　要：从油气资源、经济、政治、社会、市场体制和国际合作环境六个方面构建“一带一路”沿线国家油气投资环境影响因素指标体系。以油气资源丰富程度和政局稳定性为条件,筛选出25个国家为研究对象。运用RM-BP-DEMATEL模型进行实证分析,识别出影响“一带一路”沿线国家油气投资环境的关键因素,并根据影响力和推动力将其划分为根本型因素、驱动型因素、辅助型因素和特征型因素。建议根据沿线国家油气资源禀赋进行差异化合作;建立风险预警机制和签署投资协定以完善油气投资保障机制;建立多层次的合作渠道以加强合作沟通;开展全方位的合作模式以优化投资环境。From six aspects of oil and gas resources,economy,politics,society,market system and international cooperation environment,the influencing factors index system of oil and gas investment environment to the countries along the Belt and Road is constructed.Based on the richness of oil and gas resources and the stability of political situation,25 countries are selected as the research object.RM-BP-DEMATEL model is used to conduct empirical analysis,to identify key factors of oil and gas investment environment of countries along the line,and to determine the fundamental factors,driving factors,auxiliary factors and characteristic factors with influence and driving force.It is suggested to carry out differentiated cooperation according to the oil and gas resources endowment of countries along the line,to improve the oil and gas investment guarantee mechanism by establishing risk early warning mechanism and signing investment agreement,to establish multi-level cooperation channels to strengthen regional cooperation and communication,and to carry out all-round cooperation mode to optimize the investment environment.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 油气投资环境 RM-BP-DEMATEL模型 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]