海洋生物多样性价值评估的不确定性偏差修正——以福建平潭为例  

Uncertainty bias and its correction in contingent valuation method:A case study of marine biodiversity valuation in Pingtan County

作　　者：李京梅[1,2] 单菁竹 邓云成 许罕多 LI Jingmei;SHAN Jingzhu;DENG Yuncheng;XU Handuo(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Marine Development Institute,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Island Research Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Pingtan 350400,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,青岛266100 [3]自然资源部海岛研究中心,平潭350400

出　　处：《资源科学》2020年第7期1338-1347,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA049);中国海洋发展研究中心项目(CAMAZD201908);自然资源部海岛研究中心项目(S.200101)。

摘　　要：在面对条件价值评估法估值问题时,由于对待评估物品缺乏认知等原因,部分受访者将对支付意愿金额表现出不确定性,造成不确定性偏差。为识别并修正不确定性偏差,本文以平潭海洋生物多样性价值评估为例,通过增设题项,要求受访者给出支付意愿确切金额或区间范围,以支付意愿区间长度比例衡量受访者不确定性,在此基础上分析不确定性的影响因素,并以不确定性水平对支付意愿区间进行加权,将不确定性纳入支付意愿估值框架以减少偏误,提高条件价值评估法估值精度。结果表明:①不确定性的存在具有普遍性,近50%受访者对支付意愿表现出不确定性。②受访者在当地的居住年限、对海洋生物多样性的了解程度、收入水平均对不确定性具有显著影响。③将不确定性水平纳入支付意愿估计,运用参数估计方法测算福建平潭居民对于保护海洋生物多样性的支付意愿为200.24元/(人·年),平潭海洋生物多样性价值为8888.65万元/年。研究结论将加深对条件价值评估法中不确定性偏差来源及修正方法的理解,提高条件价值评估法估值有效性与准确性,并为海岛生态系统的海洋生物多样性保护与管理、海洋资源可持续利用提供支撑。When responding to contingent valuation method(CVM)valuation questions,some respondents may show uncertainty in their willingness to pay(WTP)because of the lack of cognition of the goods to be estimated,which will cause uncertainty bias.This study took the valuation of marine biodiversity in Pingtan County,Fujian Province as an example,to identify and correct the uncertainty bias by adding follow-up questions and incorporate uncertainty into the framework of WTP estimation,which will reduce the bias and improve the validity of CVM.The results show that about 50%of the respondents were uncertain of their willingness to pay,which means that the uncertainty could be universal.Years of residency in the area,knowledge of marine biodiversity,and income had significant effects on the uncertainty.Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of WTP,the parameter estimation results show that the estimated WTP to preserve marine biodiversity was RMB 200.24 yuan per person each year and the value of marine biodiversity in Pingtan was RMB 88.89 million yuan per year.The conclusion may deepen the understanding of the sources as well as the correction methods of uncertainty bias,and thus improve the validity of estimation results in CVM and provide data support for the protection and governance of marine biodiversity in island ecosystems.

关 键 词：条件价值评估法(CVM) 不确定性偏差 支付卡式 支付意愿 海洋生物多样性 平潭 

分 类 号：Q178[生物学—水生生物学]