中小国家要价行为与“一带一路”项目投资风险——以马来西亚东海岸铁路计划为例  

The Bargaining Behavior of Small Powers and Investment Risks of the BRI Projects:the Case of the East Coast Railway Project of Malaysia

作　　者：贺先青 林勇新 He Xianqing;Lin Yongxin

机构地区：[1]中国南海研究院海上丝绸之路研究所,海口571100

出　　处：《国际论坛》2020年第5期25-42,155,156,共20页International Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“21世纪海上丝绸之路与南海问题交互影响机制研究”(项目编号:17CGJ025)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：“一带一路”参与国大多是中小国家,在这些国家进行项目投资是中国推进“一带一路”倡议落地实施的主要方式之一。但中国的这些投资项目面临着一系列风险,既有研究成果尽管从总体上分析了这些风险图景,但是忽视了参与国对中国施行的要价行为及由此导致的“一带一路”投资项目的投资损益风险。中小国家总是在中国与其他大国的竞争压力之下进行对外行为选择,同时中小国家本身也具有自主性,能够判断自身的利益和选择实现利益的方式,这为中小国家对中国施行要价行为提供了可能性。要价行为理论认为具有强自主性的中小国家,在大国受到来自其他大国的战略制约时,会对该大国施行要价行为。马来西亚马哈蒂尔政府对东海岸铁路计划体现出的矛盾态度,正是他施行要价行为的表现。要价行为是对中小国家在强自主性和强体系压力之下的外交行为的理论概括,该理论为预判“一带一路”倡议推进过程中的项目投资风险提供了参考。The majority of the countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)are mostly small or medium-sized countries,where investment in infrastructure projects is one of China’s main ways to promote the implementation of the BRI.However,these investment projects face a series of risks.Although some studies have analyzed these risk scenarios,they have ignored the bargaining behavior of the participating countries,which may lead to risks of losses for the BRI’s investment projects.This article argues that these participating countries always make foreign policies under the competitive pressure between China and the other great powers.At the same time,since the participating countries themselves are autonomous,capable of recognizing their own interests and choosing how to realize them,this makes it possible for them to bargain with China.According to the bargaining theory,small and medium-sized countries with strong autonomy will bargain with a great power when the latter faces strategic constraints from other great powers.A case in point is the contradictory attitude shown by the Mahathir Administration of Malaysia toward China with respect to the East Coast Railway Project.The concept of bargaining behavior theoretically encapsulates the diplomatic behavior of small and medium-sized countries with strong autonomy and under strong systemic pressure.In this sense,it also provides valuable theoretical insight for predicting investment risks in the process of implementing the BRI.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 要价行为 投资风险 东海岸铁路计划 马哈蒂尔政府 

分 类 号：D51[政治法律—政治学]