基于Sobol方法的SWMM模型参数全局敏感性分析  

Global Sensitivity Analysis of SWMM Parameters Based on Sobol Method

作　　者：李美水 杨晓华[1] LI Mei-shui;YANG Xiao-hua(State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2020年第17期95-102,共8页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助面上项目(51379013);国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(41530635)。

摘　　要：以北京师范大学校园为研究区域,通过自行开发的SWMM-UQ模块采用Sobol方法对SWMM模型水量和水质参数进行全局敏感性分析。结果表明:①对于水量模拟参数,不透水面积比率(Pct-Imperv)、子汇水区特征宽度系数(K-Width)、管道曼宁系数(Manning-N)对模拟结果(目标函数)均呈现显著敏感性,这些参数对研究区的产汇流过程起着决定性的作用,是模型进行水量模拟的关键参数;②对于水质模拟参数,只有道路的最大累积量(R_MaxBulidup)、冲刷系数(R_WashoffCoef)和冲刷指数(R_WashoffExp)对模拟结果(目标函数)显著敏感,其余均不敏感,说明土地类型对水质模拟参数的敏感性有较大的影响;③无论是水量还是水质模拟参数,相对于参数的单一作用,参数的相互作用更大程度上影响着模型结果的变化。Global sensitivity of SWMM model parameters(water quantity and quality)in Beijing Normal University campus was analyzed through a self-developed SWMM-UQ(Storm Water Management Model-Uncertainty Quantification)Module.For simulation parameters of water quantity,the ratio of impervious area of subcatchment(Pct-Imperv),the width coefficient of subcatchment(K-Width)and the Manning coefficient of the conduit(Manning-N)showed significant sensitivity to the simulation results(objective function).These parameters played a decisive role in the process of rainfall and runoff of the study area,and they were the key parameters of the model for water quantity simulation.For the water quality simulation parameters,only the maximum buildup amount(R_MaxBulidup),the wash-off coefficient(R_WashoffCoef)and the wash-off exponent(R_WashoffExp)of the road were significantly sensitive to the simulation results,and the rest were not sensitive,indicating that the type of landuse had a greater impact on the sensitivity of water quality simulation parameters.Whether it was water quantity or water quality simulation parameters,the interaction of parameters affected the change of model results to a greater extent compared with the single action of parameters.

关 键 词：SWMM模型 全局敏感性 Sobol方法 水量、水质模拟参数 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]