农业生产何以存在低碳效率幻觉?——来自1997—2016年31个省份面板数据的证据  

Why there is a low-carbon efficiency illusion in agricultural production:Evidence from Chinese provincial panel data in 1997-2016

作　　者：何培培 张俊飚[1,2] 何可 陈柱康[1,2] HE Pei-pei;ZHANG Jun-biao;HE Ke;CHEN Zhu-kang(College of Economics&Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070 [2]湖北农村发展研究中心,武汉430070

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2020年第9期2205-2217,共13页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71703051,71333006);国家教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD014);中宣部文化名家暨“四个一批”人才项目。

摘　　要：利用1997—2016年中国31个省份的面板数据,测算基于农业污染物影子价格的农业低碳效率,探讨各省份农业低碳效率幻觉存在与否的问题,并在此基础上分析农业低碳效率幻觉程度的影响因素。结果表明:(1)1997—2016年,中国农业低碳效率均值呈先下降后上升的总体趋势,且"东—中—西"梯度递减的态势明显。(2)总体上,存在农业低碳效率幻觉的省份数量呈先增后减趋势;分区域看,东部和中部存在农业低碳效率幻觉的省份数量逐渐减少,而西部地区则不断增加。(3)农业经济发展水平、农业生产节能技术水平、农业发展重视程度、农业产业结构对农业低碳效率幻觉程度具有负向影响,而农业规模化水平、农业受灾率和农业人力资本的影响效应为正。Based on the panel data from China's 31 provincial-level regions in 1997-2016,this article measures the low-carbon efficiency with shadow price of agricultural pollutants.Due to the shortcomings of low-carbon efficiency evaluation of agricultural economic growth quality,its illusion can explain why the environmental quality has not improved,while the current low-carbon efficiency with expected and undesired output has been sorted.So,this article further discusses the existence of the agricultural low-carbon illusion in each provincial-level region,and analyzes factors of degree of the agricultural low-carbon efficiency illusion.The results show that,from 1997 to 2016,the average of agricultural low-carbon efficiency showed an overall trend of decreasing and then rising,it was higher in the eastern region than in the central and western regions.And the trend of"East-Middle-West"gradient decreasing was obvious,and the regional gap showed an expanding trend with obvious inter-provincial differences.In general,the number of provinces with agricultural low-carbon efficiency illusion increased first and then decreased with time.In the sub-region,the number of provinces with agricultural low-carbon illusion in the eastern and central regions gradually decreased,while that of the western region kept increasing,which meant the quality of agro-ecological environment in most eastern and central provinces really improved.The level of agricultural economic development and the agricultural production energy conservation technology,degree emphasis on agricultural development,structure of agricultural industry,scale of agricultural scale,agricultural disaster rate and human capital affect the degree of agricultural low-carbon efficiency illusion.The effects of the first four factors were found to be negative,while those of the others were positive.Based on the above conclusions,optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources,upgrading the level of agricultural production energy-saving technology and improving agricultural ec

关 键 词：农业生产 低碳效率幻觉 影子价格 影响因素 省际差异 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F323[经济管理—产业经济]