基于射击误差状态方程的高炮毁伤概率建模  

A Damage Probability Calculation Model Based on State Equation of Firing Error for Anti-Aircraft Artillery

作　　者：王向民[1] 王军[1] 谢杰涛 郭治[1] WANG Xiangmin;WANG Jun;XIE Jietao;GUO Zhi(School of Automation,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China;The 32200 Troop of PLA,Jinzhou 121000,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,南京210094 [2]中国人民解放军32200部队,辽宁锦州121000

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报》2020年第9期961-966,共6页Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University

基　　金：十三五国防预研项目(30101040204);国防重点科研项目(2019-JCJQ-ZD-134)。

摘　　要：针对高炮武器射击误差序列具有相关性时毁伤概率的计算问题,提出了基于射击误差状态方程的高炮毁伤概率递推计算模型.该模型利用满足高斯过程的射击误差序列构建了状态方程,将射击误差中的弱相关误差源分解为可预测误差和不可预测误差,并利用预测系数表示误差序列的相关性.根据状态估计递推理论,给出了各发弹药的射击误差具有相关性条件下的高炮毁伤概率计算式.仿真实验表明,当射击误差序列为1阶自相关平稳序列时,与包括国家军用标准在内的毁伤概率计算方法的结果基本相同.但当射击误差序列为高阶自相关平稳序列时,文中提出的递推计算模型具有更高的准确性.Aimed at the damage probability calculation of anti-aircraft artillery weapons when the firing error sequence is correlated,a recursive calculation model of the anti-aircraft artillery damage probability based on the firing error state equation is proposed.In this model,the error sequence,which matches Gaussian process,is used to build the state equation.Then,the weak correlation errors are decomposed into the predictable error and the unpredictable error.In addition,the error correlation is represented by the prediction coefficient.According to the recursive estimation theory,the calculation of the damage probability for the anti-aircraft artillery with correlation of the firing error is presented.The simulation results show that the damage probability calculation results are basically the same as those adopting the national military standard while the error is a first-order autocorrelation stationary sequence.However,the proposed recursive method has a higher accuracy if the error is a high-order autocorrelation stationary sequence.

关 键 词：高炮武器 射击误差 相关系数 毁伤概率 

分 类 号：TJ35[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]