基于模糊理论的PMT水下防爆试验故障树分析  

Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis of Underwater PMT Explosion Protection Experiment System

作　　者：谭润泽 李晓彬[1] 杜志鹏 何苗[3] 乐京霞[1] TAN Runze;LI Xiaobin;DU Zhipeng;HE Miao;YUE Jingxia(School of Transportation,Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan,430063,China;Naval Academy of Armament Beijing,102401,China;Institute of High Energy Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing,100049,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,武汉430063 [2]海军装备研究院,北京102401 [3]中国科学院高能物理研究所,北京100049

出　　处：《振动．测试与诊断》2020年第5期969-975,1027,共8页Journal of Vibration,Measurement & Diagnosis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51979213);“十三五”海军预研资助项目(302030104105)。

摘　　要：为解决光电倍增管(photomultiplier tubes,简称PMT)水下防爆试验系统的故障诊断问题以及故障发生概率存在模糊不确定性的特点,应用模糊集数学方法和可能性理论,把模糊数学和故障树模型相结合,提出一种基于三角形模糊数算法的PMT试验系统失效模式分析方法。根据试验系统工作原理,采用下行法建立故障树并对其进行定量分析,获得了顶事件的结构函数及多种失效模式,进而利用专家语言评价法,计算顶事件发生的模糊概率和各底事件的模糊重要度,得到了PMT试验中故障发生率较高的环节,最后对故障分析结果进行改进测试。结果表明,该方法能够准确地诊断出存在的故障,为PMT防爆试验系统进行故障诊断以及提高PMT保护罩的水下防爆性能提供参考依据。To estimate the failure probability of the photomultiplier tubes(PMT)underwater explosion test system,a method using information from fault tree analysis and uncertainty of data is presented.Based on the fuzzy set method and possibility theory,fuzzy fault tree method is a mathematical approach to model inaccuracy and uncertainty of the failure.The proposed model is able to quantify the fault tree of PMT explosion protection experiment system.In order to effectively investigate basic event failure probabilities without crisp quantitative historical failure data,fuzzy logic theory combined with expert judgement method is employed.The failure probability of the top event and the importance measures of basic events is also illustrated.The result demonstrates that the approach is apposite for the assessment of system failure.The research results can help professionals to decide whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and help improve the underwater explosion-proof performance of PMT protective cover and fault diagnosis of test system.

关 键 词：光电倍增管 模糊故障树 故障诊断 水下内爆 

分 类 号：TL813[核科学技术—核技术及应用] TH49[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]