农民土地交易行为羊群效应分析  

Analysis on Herding Effect of Agricultural Land Transaction Behavior

作　　者：李博[1] LI Bo(Department of Economics,Taiyuan Normal University,Jinzhong 030619)

机构地区：[1]太原师范学院经济系,晋中030619

出　　处：《工程数学学报》2020年第5期565-582,共18页Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics

基　　金：山西省社科基金项目.

摘　　要：准确评估农地经营权转出者的交易行为,有效抑制农地经营权交易中羊群效应的发生,是建立统一的农村土地交易市场的关键环节.本文基于农村土地转出方个体理性约束,以二维不确定信号离散行为为空间假设条件建立序贯决策数理统计模型,探讨农村土地交易过程中羊群效应的产生过程与机理,并对不同条件下羊群效应的发生进行模拟仿真.研究发现,农村土地交易中土地转出方羊群效应的产生与获得信息的可能性及获得信号的概率有关.获得过多的信息,信息不透明、不准确导致获得信号的概率较小,使土地经营权转出者难以判断信息的真假是农地交易中羊群行为产生的主要原因.It is the key link of establishing a unified agricultural land trading market,which is accurately evaluated the trading behavior of the transferors of agricultural land management right and effectively restrain the herding effect in agricultural land management right trading.Based on the individual rationality constraint of the agricultural land transfer,this paper establishes a sequential decision-marking mathematical statistical model,with the discrete behavior of two-dimensional uncertain signals as the spatial hypothesis.The process and mechanism of herd effect in the process of agricultural land transaction are discussed,and the generation of herd effect under different conditions is simulated.It is found that the herding effect of land transfer in agricultural land transaction is related to the possibility of obtaining information and signal.The main reason for herd behavior in agricultural land transaction is that the information is not transparent and accurate,which leads to a small probability of obtaining signals and makes it difficult for the transferors to judge the authenticity of the information.

关 键 词：农地交易市场 三权分置 羊群效应 二维信号 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]