人工防雹作业效果物理统计评估方法运用初探  

A Preliminary Study on Application of Physical Statistical Evaluation of Hail Suppression Effect

作　　者：李斌[1] 郑博华 朱思华[1] LI Bin;ZHENG Bohua;ZHU Sihua(Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2020年第4期113-118,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-136);公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目“山区人工防雹关键技术及业务应用的研究”(GYHY201306047)。

摘　　要：利用与反映冰雹云发展强度直接有关的最大雷达回波顶高、回波最强中心强度和40 d BZ回波强度顶高等雷达回波参数特征,采用物理统计学方法,针对2004—2005年新疆天山西部昭苏盆地和北疆沿天山东部的五家渠垦区人工防雹作业效果进行分析评估。结果两地人工防雹作业效果显著性水平α分别为0.077和0.01。一般α=0.05为显著。因此,两地人工防雹作业效果分别为接近显著和十分显著。人工防雹作业有效率分别为38.9%和75%。With the parameters of the biggest radar echo top,the strongest echo center strength and 40 dBZ echo intensity peak hight,which are directly related to the development intensity of the hail cloud,using physical statistics methods,the effect of hail suppression was evaluated in Zhaosu Basin and Wujiaqu Reclamation area in Xinjiang during 2004-2005.The significance levelαof hail suppression was 0.077 and 0.01.Generally,α=0.05 was considered significant.Therefore,the effect of hail suppression in two areas was close to significant and very significant.The effective rate of hail suppression was 38.9%and 75%respectively.

关 键 词：人工防雹 作业效果 物理统计检验 

分 类 号：P482[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]