考虑自然变异的漳河流域未来气候变化情景预估  

Projection of Future Climate Change in Zhanghe River Basin with Consideration of Climate Natural Variability

作　　者：伦玉蕊 王若彤 刘浏[1,2] LUN Yurui;WANG Ruotong;LIU Liu(College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Center for Agricultural Water Research in China,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国农业大学中国农业水问题研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2020年第5期1-9,共9页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项(2017YFC0403201)。

摘　　要：为探究自然变异对未来气候变化预估的影响,首先采用秩评分和多准则决策排序法在漳河流域进行GCMs适应性评估,进而构建考虑自然变异与否的统计降尺度模型MOS进行对比分析,最后采用典型浓度路径RCP下的多种排放情景(RCP2.6,RCP4.5与RCP8.5),对流域未来2021年—2050年的气候变化进行集合预估。研究结果表明:在统计降尺度模型中考虑自然变异可有效提升结果可靠度,尤其是模型验证期的模拟精度提升显著。多模式多情景下漳河流域未来年降水量较基准期的变化在-29%~10%之间;未来年最高、最低气温分别呈0.5℃~2.0℃和0.3℃~1.3℃的增加趋势,且随着温室气体排放浓度的增加而增幅变大(RCP8.5>RCP4.5>RCP2.6)。In order to explore the effects of natural variability on the projection of future climate change,the adaptability evaluation of multiple GCMs(General Circulation Models)was conducted in the Zhanghe River basin by scorebased method and multicriterion decision-making outranking method firstly,then the MOS(Model Output Statistics)statistical downscaling model was developed with consideration of climate natural variability which was driven by the preferred GCMs under three RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)scenarios including RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,to project the future climate change during 2021—2050.The results showed that integrating climate natural variability with the MOS could effectively improve the reliability of the downscaling results.Particularly,the simulation accuracy of MOS during the validation period was significantly improved.Compared with the baseline period,the variation range of projected annual precipitation during the future period was from-29%to 10%.The maximum and minimum air temperature were both projected to increase,ranging between 0.5℃~2.0℃and 0.3℃~1.3℃,respectively,and the rising magnitudes of air temperature simulated by most GCMs kept consistent with those of CO2 emission concentration,i.e.,RCP8.5>RCP4.5>RCP2.6.

关 键 词：气候变化 统计降尺度 自然变异 大气环流模式 漳河流域 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]