科技创新关键阶段投资与风险管理研究  

Research on Investment and Risk Management in Key Stages of Scientific and Technological Innovation

作　　者：李俊霞[1] 温小霓[1] LI Jun-xia;WEN Xiao-ni(School of Economics and Management,Xidian University,Xi’an 710126,China)

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710126

出　　处：《中国软科学》2020年第9期175-183,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：陕西省软科学研究计划项目重点项目(2016KRZ010);西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院研究生创新实践种子基金。

摘　　要：本文通过分析2010—2018年中国26个省市创业风险投资情况面板数据,发现种子期和初创期投资占比将近60%,种子期投资对科技创新呈显著正向影响,且影响最大。科技创新关键阶段具有风险高、不确定性强,未来收益潜力最可观的特点,通过共性风险因果关系构建了一个包含14个节点的三层贝叶斯网络模型,对整体风险水平进行定量估计。研究显示,该阶段总风险等级为高的概率达到52.929%,可找出关键风险事件。基于上述研究结论,风险投资应多关注关键阶段的原始创新。越早关注,风险管理能力越强,收益潜力越高。同时,加强基础研究和关键技术的攻关,完善创新生态,扩大开放创新。By analyzing the panel data of venture capital investment in 26 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2018,it is find that the investment in seed and early period accounts for nearly 60%.The investment in the seed period has a significant positive impact on technological innovation and has the greatest impact.The stage of scientific and technological innovation research and development has the characteristics of high risk,high uncertainty and the most promising future earnings potential.A three-layer Bayesian network model with 14 nodes is constructed by common risk causality to quantitatively estimate the overall risk level.Studies have shown that the probability of a high-risk level at this stage is 52.929%,identifying key risk events.Venture capital should pay more attention to the original innovation in the key stage,and the earlier it enters the risk management,the stronger it will be and the higher the profit potential will be.Meanwhile,the system and mechanism of scientific and technological innovation should be improved.At the same time,we will strengthen basic research and tackle key technical problems,improve the ecology of innovation,and expand open innovation.

关 键 词：科技创新 创业风险投资 TOBIT模型 贝叶斯网络 风险管理 

分 类 号：F832.46[经济管理—金融学]