生态福利与经济发展互动关系研究——基于可持续发展理念  

Research on the Interactive Relationship Between Ecological Welfare and Economic Development:Based on the Concept of Sustainable Development

作　　者：潘苏楠 李北伟[1] 聂洪光[2,3] Pan Sunan;Li Beiwei;Nie Hongguang(School of Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130022,China;School of Economics and Management,Changchun University of Science and Tchnology,Changchun 130028,China;Institute of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学管理学院,吉林长春130022 [2]长春理工大学经济管理学院,吉林长春130028 [3]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2020年第18期237-244,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“城市居民能源消费影响因素及低碳转型引导机制研究”(71503026)。

摘　　要：在美丽中国建设视域下,基于可持续发展理念,通过分析生态福利和经济发展的内涵与机理,运用全排列多边形综合图示法构建中国2004—2017年生态福利可持续指数和经济发展可持续指数;在此基础上,采用向量自回归(VAR)模型对生态福利和经济发展的动态关系进行实证研究,并通过障碍度分析挖掘研究期内生态福利和经济发展的关键制约因素。研究结果表明:在研究期内,生态福利可持续提升与经济可持续发展之间存在长期均衡关系,二者互为格兰杰原因;生态福利可持续提升对经济可持续发展的预测方差起着重要作用,而经济可持续发展对生态福利可持续提升的预测方差的贡献度比较小。In this paper,from the perspective of beautiful China construction,based on the concept of sustainable development,through the analysis of the connotation and mechanism of ecological welfare and economic development,the sustainable index of China’s ecological welfare and economic development from 2004 to 2017 is constructed by using the comprehensive graphic method of full-arrangement polygon.On this basis,the dynamic relationship between ecological welfare and economic development is empirically studied by vector auto regression(VAR)model,and the key constraints of ecological welfare and economic development are excavated through barrier degree analysis.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between sustainable improvement of ecological welfare and sustainable development of economy in the research period,and the two are Granger reasons for each other;sustainable improvement of ecological welfare plays an important role in predicting the difference of sustainable economic development,while the contribution of sustainable economic development to the predicted variance of sustainable improvement of ecological welfare is relatively small.

关 键 词：生态福利 经济发展 全排列多边形综合图示法 向量自回归模型 障碍度分析 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F224