基于模糊故障树的会展物流展品运输风险评价  

Risk assessment of exhibition logistics exhibits transportation based on fuzzy fault tree

作　　者：刘瑞贤[1,2] 曹闰烽 刘婧 LIU Rui-xian;CAO Run-feng;LIU Jing(School of Economics and Management,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,China;North University of China(Shuozhou),Shuozhou 036000,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]中北大学经济与管理学院,太原030051 [2]中北大学朔州校区,山西朔州036000

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2020年第18期191-197,202,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：2018年山西省软科学研究一般项目(2018041057-3);2019年山西省艺术科学规划课题(2019A62)。

摘　　要：会展物流展品存在运输风险,传统的风险评价方法难以高效完成任务。以2020第三届中国庭院与花园园艺展览会为案例,提出基于模糊故障树的风险评价方法。建立会展物流展品运输失效故障树,使用一致性决策综合专家意见,通过去模糊化输出得到底事件的发生概率,对比模糊概率重要度得到顶事件的薄弱环节。结果表明,影响会展物流展品运输失效的薄弱环节主要是运输线路路况复杂、运输车辆驾驶员安全意识差。Exhibition logistics exhibits had transportation risks,and the traditional risk assessment methods were difficult to complete the task efficiently.A risk assessment method based on fuzzy fault tree was proposed based on the case of the 3rd China Garden and Garden Horticulture Exhibition in 2020.The exhibition logistics exhibits transportion failure fault tree was established,the consistent decision was used to synthesize expert opinions,the de-fuzzy output was used to get the probability of the bottom event,and the weak links of the top event were obtained by comparing the importance of fuzzy probability.The results showed that the weak links that affect⁃ing the transportion failure of exhibition logistics exhibits were mainly the complex road conditions of transportation lines,fatigue driv⁃ing of transportion vehicle drivers and poor safety awareness of transportation vehicle drivers.

关 键 词：模糊故障树 会展物流展品 运输风险评价 

分 类 号：F542[经济管理—产业经济] U492.81[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]