基于CA-Markov模型的漓江流域土地利用模拟研究  

Simulation of land use in Li River Basin based on CA-Markov model

作　　者：贺正思宇 谢玲[1,2] 梁保平 邓晓军[3] 严土强 仝雁军 李雪琼 HE Zhengsiyu;XIE Ling;LIANG Baoping;DENG Xiaojun;YAN Tuqiang;TONG Yanjun;LI Xueqiong(College of Environment and Resources,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin,541004,China;College of Environment and Resources,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;College of Economics,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学环境与资源学院,桂林541004 [2]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]浙江财经大学经济学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《生态科学》2020年第5期142-150,共9页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“城市化背景下河湖水系连通的时空变化及其洪涝响应研究”(41601039);广西自然科学基金“漓江流域下垫面变化对不同重现期暴雨洪水的影响研究”(2017GXNSFAA198012);广西自然科学基金“基于水足迹评价的桂西地区水资源合理配置研究”(2015GXNSFBA139186);广西自然科学基金面上项目“典型岩溶区城镇土地利用时空演变及生态环境效应研究”(2018GXNSFAA050060);广西高校青年项目“少数民族地区多维贫困测度与减贫模式研究-以广西为例”(2018KY0059);广西高校重点实验室研究基金“广西石漠化地区土地利用/覆被变化与生态优化调控研究”(YRHJ16Z016)。

摘　　要：土地利用/覆被变化是研究全球范围内的人类活动对土地利用、开发以及对环境变化的影响,是人类可持续发展研究中必不可少的一部分。选择国家重点保护的漓江为研究对象,基于2005、2010、2015年Landsat7TM/ETM影像,利用ENVI对影像预处理,最大似然进行监督分类,借助土地转移矩阵,选取四个(坡度、水域、建设用地、GDP指数)限制性因素作为适宜性图集,运用CA-Markov模型预测2020年漓江流域土地利用类型。结果表明:(1)2005-2015年漓江流域土地利用/覆被变化特征显著,耕地、草地面积减少,林地、水域、建设用地面积增加,其中,建设用地变化最大,动态度为13.64%。(2)从土地利用转移矩阵知,耕地向林地,草地向林地为主要转移流,各地类的内部转入转出较频繁。(3)模拟预测研究区2020年建设用地持续增加,耕地、草地持续减少。研究揭示漓江流域土地利用变化的内部机制,以期为促进研究区土地资源配置的高效性和合理性提供参考依据。Land use and land cover change is an indispensable part of human sustainable development research,which studies the impact of human activities on land use,development and environment change within a global scale.This article selects the Li River Basin,one of the 13 rivers under the special protection of our state,as the object of study.Based on the Landsat 7TM/ETM images in 2005,2010 and 2015,we preprocessed remote sensing images with ENVI,supervised classification with maximum likelihood method,analyzed driving factors of Land use and Land cover change in virtue of land transfer matrix,and predicated Land use type of Li River Basin in 2020 based on Ca-Markov Model.The results are as follows.(1)From 2005 to 2015,the Li River Basin showed significant changes in land use/cover,with the area of cultivated land and grassland decreasing,and the area of woodland,water area and construction land increasing.Among them,the maximum land use dynamic attitude of construction land was 13.64%.(2)From the land use transfer matrix,the main transfer flow was from cultivated land to forest land and grassland to forest land,and the internal transfer and transfer of all kinds of land use were relatively frequent.In-depth analysis showed that the influencing factors of land use change included both slope and water accessibility and fixed land type and GDP.(3)The construction land will continue to increase and grassland will continue to decrease and cultivated land will remain stable after approaching the basic farmland protection‘red line’in 2020.This study reveals the internal mechanism of land use change in the Li river basin,which is expected to provide reference basis for promoting the efficiency and rationality of land resource allocation in the Li river basin,and provide suggestions for the planning of land use in the study area.

关 键 词：土地利用/覆被 模拟 CA-Markov 适宜性图集 漓江流域 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]