多重因素影响下的世界经济金融前景展望  

PROSPECTS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY AND FINANCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE FACTORS

作　　者：陈卫东[1] Chen Weidong

机构地区：[1]中国银行研究院

出　　处：《中国经济报告》2020年第5期127-135,共9页CHINA POLICY REVIEW

摘　　要：2020年,新冠疫情肆虐全球,不仅对世界经济增长和金融市场形成冲击,而且更深层次地改变了后疫情时代全球经济金融格局的演变方向。本文首先分析了新冠疫情对世界经济和国际金融市场造成的短期影响,以及各国为应对新冠疫情所采取的宽松政策对全球经济埋下的长期隐患——全球债务危机已经成为后疫情时代最大的“灰犀牛”。随后,本文分析了多重因素交织下,世界经济、全球产业链以及国际经济贸易格局的长期发展趋势和演变方向。In 2020,the COVID-19 epidemic rages around the world,causing short-term disturbances to world economic growth and financial markets,and together with many other complex factors,it will profoundly change the evolution of the global economic and financial landscape in the post-epidemic era.This article first analyzes the multiple complex factors currently facing the world.On this basis,it analyzes the short-term impact of the new crown epidemic on the world economy and international financial markets,as well as the long-term hidden dangers to the global economy caused by the loose policies adopted by countries in response to the COVID-19 epidemic-the global debt crisis has become the largest"Gray Rhino"in the post-epidemic era.Finally,this article analyzes the long-term development trend and evolution direction of the world economy,global industrial chain,international economic and trade pattern under multiple factors.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 世界经济 流动性陷阱 债务危机 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F831[经济管理—世界经济]