定向降准对银行信贷结构的调整作用——基于银行信用风险环境的考量  

Effect of DirectionalReserve Requirement Ratio Cut Policy on the Credit Structure of Commercial Banks:An Analysis Based on Credit Risk Situation

作　　者：闫雨微 YAN Yu-wei(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdou,Sichuan 611130)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学统计学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《汕头大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2020年第5期42-52,95,共12页Journal of Shantou University(Humanities and Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：央行实施定向降准等结构性货币政策增大商业银行信贷规模,缓解小微企业融资难题。然而微观主体基于盈利目的的决策行为具有不可控性,资金仍旧可能大部分流向大型企业及房地产等领域,定向降准或作用有限。首先通过理论推导得出定向降准可以提高银行小微企业贷款比例、银行信用风险状况可以影响定向降准的政策效果两条假说,然后通过实证分析进行验证。采用倾向值得分匹配倍差法(PSM-DID)构建随机效应面板回归模型,通过分析模型中政策变量与组别变量的交互项系数的显著性得到结论:定向降准政策可以在一定程度上提高商业银行的小微企业贷款占比。将衡量银行内部风险承担状况和外部城市信用风险状况的变量分别引入模型,通过分析风险变量与政策变量、组别变量交互项显著性,最终得到结论:定向降准政策效果会受到银行风险承担状况和外部信用环境状况的负向影响。The central bank implements a series of structural monetary polices such as the Directional Reserve Requirement Ratio(RRR)Cut policy,the Re-lending policy,the Rediscount policy,etc.,to increase the credit scale of commercial banks in order to promote the small and micro enterprises to obtain credit resources.However,the decision-making behaviors of the micro individuals are always uncontrollable,which are based on the purpose of making profits.What’s worse,the loan may flow to the fictitious economy which may intensify the economic bubble.Directional RRR Cut policy has limited effect on the real economy.The paper firstly deduces two hypotheses:one is the Directional RRR Cut policy can increase the loan ratio of small and micro enterprises and the other is the credit risk situation of banks can affect the effect of the Directional RRR Cut policy,and then verifies them through empirical analysis.The paper uses the Propensity Score Matching&Difference-in-Difference(PSM-DID)to build the Rational Effect(FE)Panel Regression Model.Through analyzing the interaction effect of the treatment variable and the category variable,it can be concluded that the Directional RRR Cut policy can somewhat increase the loan ratio of the small and micro enterprises.Then the model is modified by adding the variables measuring the internal risk-taking situation of the bank and the external credit risk situation separately.Through analyzing the moderating effect of the added variables,it can be concluded that the internal and external credit risk situation of the bank can weaken the effect of Directional RRR Cut policy.

关 键 词：定向降准 小微企业贷款比例 银行信用风险 倾向值得分匹配倍差法 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]