政府、共享单车企业与消费者三方动态博弈演变及稳定性策略分析  

Dynamic Evolution and Stability Strategy Analysis of Game Among Government,Bicycle Sharing Enterprise and Consumer

作　　者：周涛[1] 周世祥 刘浏 ZHOU Taol;ZHOU Shixiang;LIU Liu(Management School,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,Shandong;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,Shandong;School of Economic and Management,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150000,Heilongjiang)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学管理学院,山东淄博255000 [2]山东理工大学数学与统计学院,山东淄博255000 [3]哈尔滨工程大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《管理学刊》2020年第5期82-94,共13页Journal of Management

基　　金：教育部规划基金项目(19YJA630126);山东省社会科学规划研究项目(18CGLJ12)。

摘　　要：基于政府、企业和消费者三方相互作用的利益关系构建动态博弈演化模型,对三方动态博弈演变路径进行探寻,并通过算例仿真,进一步验证三方动态博弈演变路径及各影响因素的灵敏度变化方向与强度,最终提出稳定性策略建议。研究发现,基于政府驱动的三方动态博弈演变可实现帕累托最优策略均衡。政府监管形象和政府处罚对政府监管概率的提升具有正向影响作用,企业规范经营收益、企业处罚、政府奖惩对企业规范经营概率的提升具有正向影响作用,企业奖惩对消费者守约概率的提升具有正向影响作用,而三方策略投入成本对其概率的提升均具有负向影响作用。为了实现帕累托最优策略均衡,政府行政监管过程中通常采取以行政处罚为主、奖励为辅的策略,而共享单车企业通常采取以企业奖励为主、惩罚为辅的策略。The paper builds a dynamic game evolution model based on the interest relationship of the tripartite interaction among government,enterprises and consumers,explores the evolution path of the tripartite dynamic game,and also verifies the evolution path of the tripartite dynamic game and the change direction and intensity of the sensitivity of each influencing factor via example simulation.At the end,stability strategy recommendations are put forward.The study shows,firstly,the evolution of the tripartite dynamic game based on government drive can achieve Pareto optimal strategy equilibrium.Secondly,the government supervision image and government penalties exert positive influence on the government supervision probability.Enterprises’standardized operating income,corporate penalties,and government rewards and penalties exert positive influence on the probability of corporate standardized operating.Corporate rewards and penalties exert positive influence on the consumer compliance probability,while the cost of the tripartite strategy exerts negative influence on it.Thirdly,in order to achieve Pareto optimal strategy equilibrium,the government usually adopts the strategy of administrative punishment as the main and reward as the supplement in the process of government administrative supervision.While,the bicycle sharing enterprises usually adopt the strategy of reward as the main and punishment as the supplement.

关 键 词：动态博弈 共享单车 监督 规范经营 守约 

分 类 号：F224.32[经济管理—国民经济]