不同升温情景下中国东北地区平均气候和极端气候事件变化预估  

Prediction of changes in mean and extreme climate events in Northeast China under different warming scenarios

作　　者：敖雪[1] 翟晴飞[2] 崔妍[1] 赵春雨[1] 王涛[1] 周晓宇[1] 侯依玲[1] AO Xue;ZHAI Qing-fei;CUI Yan;ZHAO Chun-yu;WANG Tao;ZHOU Xiao-yu;HOU Yi-ling(Shenyang Regional Climate Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Weather Modification Office,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]辽宁省人工影响天气办公室,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2020年第5期40-51,共12页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201910和CCSF202013);2018年辽宁省气象局科研课题(BA201803);辽宁省科学技术计划项目(2019-MZ-199和2019-ZD-0859)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用区域气候模式RegCM4的逐日气温和降水资料,预估1.5℃和2.0℃升温情景下,东北地区平均气候和极端气候事件的变化。结果表明:RCP4.5排放情景下,模式预计在2030年和2044年左右稳定达到1.5℃和2.0℃升温;两种升温情景下,东北地区气温、积温、生长季长度均呈增加趋势,且增幅随着升温阈值的升高而增加;1.5℃升温情景下,年平均气温增幅为1.19℃,年平均降水距平百分率增幅为5.78%,积温增加247.1℃·d,生长季长度延长7.0 d;2.0℃升温情景下气温、积温、生长季长度增幅较1.5℃升温情景下显著,但是年和四季降水普遍减少,年降水距平百分率减小1.96%。两种升温情景下,极端高温事件显著增加,极端低温事件显著减少,极端降水事件普遍增加。霜冻日数、结冰日数均呈显著减少趋势,热浪持续指数呈显著增加趋势;未来东北地区降水极端性增强,不仅单次降水过程的量级增大,极端降水过程的量级也明显增大,随着升温阈值的增大,极端降水的强度也逐渐增大。Using the daily temperature and precipitation data from the regional climate model RegCM4,the changes in the average climate and extreme climate events in the Northeast China region under the 1.5℃and 2.0℃heating scenarios were estimated.The results show that under the RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)emission scenario,the model is expected to stabilize 1.5℃and 2.0℃warmings around 2030 and 2044.Under the two warming scenarios,the temperature,accumulated temperature,and the length of the growing season in the Northeast China all show an increasing trend.The increasing rate increases with the increase in the warming threshold.In the case of 1.5℃warmings,the annual average temperature increases by 1.19℃,the anomaly percentage in annual average precipitation increases by 5.78%,the average accumulated temperature increases by 247.1℃·d,and the length of the growing season extends by 7.0 days.The temperature,accumulated temperature,and the length of the growing season increase significantly under the warming condition of 2℃compared with that under the warming condition of 1.5℃.However,annual and seasonal precipitation generally decreases,and the annual precipitation anomaly decreases by 1.96%.Under the two warming scenarios,extreme high-temperature events increase significantly,extremely low-temperature events decrease significantly,and extreme precipitation events generally increase.The number of frost and freezing days decreases significantly,and the duration of heatwaves increases significantly.In the future,precipitation extremes in Northeast China will increase.Not only will the magnitude of a single precipitation process increase,but the magnitude of the extreme precipitation process also increases significantly.With the increase of the temperature threshold,intensity of the extreme precipitation will also gradually increase.

关 键 词：区域气候模式 东北地区 升温情景 极端气候事件 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]