变化环境下设计洪水计算方法研究--以辽宁省为例  

Study on calculation method of design flood in Liaoning Province under variable environment

作　　者：王福东 金鑫 佘敦先[3] 谢自银[4] WANG Fudong;JIN Xin;SHE Dunxian;XIE Ziyin(Liaoning Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Command Office,Shenyang 110003,China;River and Reservoirs Management Service Center of Liaoning Province(Hydrological Bureau of Liaoning Province),Shenyang 110003,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resource and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Hydrology and Water Resources Department,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省防汛抗旱指挥部办公室,辽宁沈阳110003 [2]辽宁省河库管理服务中心(辽宁省水文局),辽宁沈阳110003 [3]武汉大学水循环与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [4]南京水利科学研究院水资源研究所,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《人民长江》2020年第10期26-30,72,共6页Yangtze River

基　　金：辽宁水利科技指导性计划项目(20160104)。

摘　　要：针对气候变化及人类活动影响下流域水循环及其伴生过程发生改变、水文非一致性增强以及原有设计洪水计算方法已不能满足水利工程规划设计及防洪减灾的突出问题,以辽宁省为例,开展了变化环境下设计洪水计算方法研究。采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型、波尔Ⅻ型等10种频率分布曲线进行配线,确定了适合辽宁干旱半干旱地区的波尔Ⅻ最优线型,且辽西22站拟合度均在0.95以上;基于GAMLSS模型,建立了考虑气候变化的辽宁省设计洪水计算非一致性模型,该模型能够反映变化环境对设计洪水的影响;基于近20 a数据,完善了辽宁省无(缺)资料地区设计洪水计算方法,完善后的计算方法的计算成果精度更高。研究成果已在辽宁省水利工程规划设计中得到了应用,并在松辽流域部分地区得以推广,对其他地区设计洪水的计算也有参考价值。Under influence of climate change and human activities,the watershed water cycle and its associated processes have changed,resulting in the inconsistency characteristics of hydrological processes,so the original calculation methods of design flood cannot meet the needs of design of water conservancy project and flood control under new environment.In view of this,taking Liaoning Province as an example,we study on the calculation methods of design flood under variable environment.10 kinds of frequency distribution curves,such as Pearson III and EBⅫ,have been used for flood frequency analysis,and the EBⅫpattern has been established for flood frequency analysis in arid and semi-arid areas.The fitting degrees of 22 stations in the western Liaoning Province are all above 0.95.Based on GAMLSS model,a non-uniform calculation model of design flood in Liaoning Province has been established for the purpose of reflecting the influence of variable environment on design flood.In order to improve accuracy,the calculation method of design flood in un-gauged basins in Liaoning Province has been improved based on the data in recent 20 years.The results have been applied in the design of water conservancy project in Liaoning Province,and have been popularized in Songhua River and Liaohe River Basin.It is also of reference value to the calculation of storm flood in other areas.

关 键 词：设计洪水 变化环境 设计暴雨 非一致性 辽宁省 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]