助力复工复产:企业养老保险缴费率的潜在下调空间——基于多种政策组合的分析  

Help enterprises to resume work and production:The potential reduction space of enterprise endowment insurance payment rate based on analysis of multiple policy combinations

作　　者：张冉 曾益[1] ZHANG Ran;ZENG Yi(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第5期68-76,共9页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助项目(19FRKB002);湖北省社科基金一般项目(2019060);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2722020JCT028)。

摘　　要：2020年受新冠肺炎疫情冲击,大批中小微企业生产经营压力加大。为助力企业复工复产,结合企业职工养老保险基金收支数据,运用精算模型分析养老保险缴费率潜在下调空间。研究发现:当无政策干预,养老保险基金于2024年出现累计赤字,缴费率调至26.75%能使基金收支平衡;若单独实施国有股划转政策,缴费率最高可下调2.38%~5.55%,企业缴费负担可减轻14.88%~34.69%,单独实施社保征收体制改革或扩面政策,缴费率虽有下调空间,但企业缴费负担未减轻;若同时实施国有股划转政策、社保征收体制改革和扩面三项政策,缴费率最低可下调2.31%~7.09%,最高下调4.67%~11.03%,且能减轻企业缴费负担;考虑财政补贴之后,缴费率最低可下调0.95%~7.09%,最高可下调2.16%~13.17%,企业缴费负担进一步减轻。因此,政府可加大国有股划转比例,尽快落实社保征收体制改革并提高养老保险财政补贴,为缴费率下调创造契机。Under the impact of the COVID-19 in 2020,the pressure of small,medium and micro enterprises increased.In order to help these enterprises resume work and production,this paper uses actuarial model to analyze the potential reduction space of enterprise endowment insurance payment rate based on the income and expenditure data of enterprise endowment insurance fund.The study finds that:(a)when there is no policy intervention,the pension fund will have a cumulative deficit in 2024,and the payment rate will rise to 26.75%to make the fund keep balance.(b)If the state-owned share transfer policy is implemented separately,the payment rate will be reduced by up to 2.38%~5.55%,and the payment burden of enterprises will be reduced by 14.88%~34.69%.If the social security collection system reform or expansion policy is implemented separately,the payment rate will have room to be reduced,but the payment burden of enterprises will not be reduced.(c)If the three policies are implemented at the same time,which includes state-owned share transfer policy,social security collection system reform and expansion policy,the minimum reduction of payment rate will be 2.31%~7.09%,the maximum reduction will be 4.67%~11.03%,and the payment burden of enterprises will be reduced.(d)After considering financial subsidies,the minimum reduction of payment rate will be 0.95%~7.09%,the maximum reduction will be 2.16%~13.17%,and the payment burden of enterprises can be reduced more.Therefore,government can increase the transfer ratio of state-owned shares,implement social security collection system reform as soon as possible,and increase financial subsidies for pension insurance to create an opportunity for the payment rate reduction.

关 键 词：复工复产 养老保险 缴费率 下调空间 缴费负担 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]