基于等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型的河南旅游总收入预测  

Prediction of Henan Tourism Total Revenue Based on Equivalent Dimension New Information Grey Markov Model

作　　者：顾艳文 刘媛华[1] GU Yan-wen;LIU Yuan-hua(Business School of University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《科技和产业》2020年第10期131-134,共4页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：上海理工大学科技发展项目(2018KJFZ037)。

摘　　要：以河南省旅游总收入为对象进行研究,选取2005-2018年的旅游总收入数据作为研究样本,在GM(1,1)模型的基础上,用马尔可夫理论和等维新息的思想加以修正,建立了等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型。结果表明,等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型比传统的GM(1,1)模型和灰色马尔可夫模型的预测精度要高,达到了94.735%,可用来进行旅游总收入的预测,从而为有关部门制定政策提供参考。Taking the total tourism revenue of Henan Province as the research subject,selecting the total tourism revenue data from 2005 to 2018 as the research sample,and basing on the GM(1,1)model,revising by Markov theory and the idea of equal dimension innovation,establish the equal-dimension new information gray Markov model.The results show that the gray Markov model with equal dimensions and new information which can be used to predict total tourism revenue,has a higher prediction accuracy than the traditional GM(1,1)model and gray Markov model,reaching up to 94.735%,which can provide reference for relevant government department policy-making.

关 键 词：旅游总收入 灰色预测 马尔可夫模型 等维新息 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]