基于GM(1,1)模型的崇左农产品冷链物流需求预测分析  

Based on GM(1,1) Model for Demand and Forecast Analysis of Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics in Chongzuo

作　　者：杨丽英[1] 黄婧兰 YANG Li-ying;HUANG Jing-lan(Guangxi Normal University for Nationalities,Chongzuo 532000,China)

机构地区：[1]广西民族师范学院,广西崇左532000

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2020年第10期132-136,共5页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：广西民族师范学院校级科研项目(项目编号:2015DY018)。

摘　　要：文中选取崇左七种典型农产品为研究对象,收集2008~2016年相关的农产品产量数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对2017~2020年的产量进行预测,并做相应的残差检验和预测结果分析,预测结果表明崇左农产品产量需求整体上都趋于稳步上升趋势,进而针对崇左市农产品冷链物流的发展给出一定的建议。In this paper,seven typical agricultural products in Chongzuo are selected as the research object,and the output data of 2008-2016 are collected.The gray GM(1,1)model is used to predict the output of 2017-2020,and the corresponding residual test and prediction result analysis are made.The prediction results show that the output demand of Chongzuo agricultural products tends to rise steadily as a whole,and then aiming at the cold chain of Chongzuo agricultural products Some suggestions are given for the development of logistics.

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1)模型 农产品冷链物流 需求预测 崇左 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济]