空气质量预报在世界互联网大会中的应用  

Application of Air Quality Forecast in the World Internet Conference

作　　者：王晓元[1] 唐倩 徐圣辰 姚德飞[1] 田旭东[1] 沈叶民 WANG Xiaoyuan;Tang Qian;XU Shengchen;YAO Defei;TIAN Xudong;SHEN Yemin(Zhejiang Environmental Monitoring Centre,Hangzhou 310012,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省环境监测中心,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《中国环境监测》2020年第5期22-28,共7页Environmental Monitoring in China

基　　金：浙江省环保科研计划项目“浙江省重污染天气应急减排措施的效果研究”(2019A005)。

摘　　要：为支持世界互联网大会期间大气污染管控工作,利用人工结合数值模式预报的方式在第二届到第五届世界互联网大会期间开展空气质量预报工作。多模式系统中WRF-CMAQ对乌镇及浙北区域大气污染变化的趋势模拟最好,2016—2018年对AQI日均值模拟的平均分数偏差(MFB)和平均分数误差(MFE)分别为-1.3%~1.6%和24.3%~28.3%。会前48 h、72 h和96 h空气质量等级预报准确率分别为37.5%~83.3%、33.3%~90.0%和0~89.9%。会议期间乌镇的AQI日均值48 h预报准确率为33.3%~100%,等级预报准确率为66.7%~100%。与日常空气质量预报不同,会议期间预报还应重点关注大气污染过程,如有污染可能性,需要给出污染过程的起始时间、持续范围和浓度峰值等情况及其关键时间节点,有针对性地提出大气污染管控的措施建议,为会议期间空气质量保障提供技术支撑。In order to support air pollution control during the World Internet Conference,artificial forecast and numerical air quality model prediction were combined to forecast the ambient air quality during the second to fifth World Internet Conference.In the multi-mode system,WRF-CMAQ was the best model to simulate the trend of air pollution in Wuzhen and North Zhejiang,the mean fractional bias(MFB)and mean fractional error(MFE)of daily AQI in 2016-2018 were-1.3%-1.6%and 24.3%-28.3%,respectively.For the 48 h,72 h and 96 h air quality grade forecasts before the conference,the accuracy rates were 37.5%-83.3%,33.3%-90.0%and 0-89.9%,respectively.During the conference,the 48-hour AQI forecast accuracy was 33.3%-100%,and the air quality grade forecast accuracy was 66.7%-100%.Different from daily air quality forecast,the forecast for the conference also need to focus on air pollution process,and technical support for air pollution control should be provided.The forecast of key time nodes such as the start and end time,the concentration peak time of the pollution process was very important for air pollution control.

关 键 词：空气质量预报 大气污染管控 数值模式 

分 类 号：X87[环境科学与工程—环境工程]