基于管理疏忽与风险树的航运事故案例分析  

Case Study of Shipping Accident Based on MORT

作　　者：丁涛[1] 林镇创 王帆 黄泽乾 王钰 DING Tao;LIN Zhenchuang;WANG Fan;HUANG Zeqian;WANG Yu(School of Transportation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China;Yangtze River Shipping Development Research Center,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北武汉430063 [2]长江航运发展研究中心,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第10期37-42,48,共7页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402005)。

摘　　要：为管控航运事故发生率,降低公众生命威胁和财产安全损失可能性,从系统致因理论出发,运用管理疏忽与风险树法对马鞍山8.16“马和渡104”沉没事故进行案例分析。通过MORT分析构建研究案例的S分支与M分支模型,科学探究事故发生全过程的主要风险源及现有航运管理系统的潜在危险因素;确定相应的安全管理风险要素评价指标体系并运用模糊层次分析定性定量化赋值指标,明确量化评价风险要素,找出事故各层级主要致因。该研究对促进航运经济的可持续发展、提高航运企业安全管理水平具有重大意义。To control the incidence of shipping accidents and reduce the possibility of public life threats and property losses,the Vessel“Mahedu 104”sunken accident on Aug.16 at Maanshan was analyzed as a case study,by utilizing the management oversight and risk tree(MORT)analysis method,which was based on the theory of systematic causation.Besides,the S-branch and M-branch models of the case study were established by MORT analysis,to scientifically explore the main risk sources of the entire accident occurrence process and the potential danger factors of the existing shipping management system.The corresponding safety management risk factor evaluation index system was determined,and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process qualitative and quantitative evaluation index was used to quantitatively evaluate the risk factors and find out the main causes of the accident at all levels.This research is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of the shipping economy and improve the safety management level of shipping companies.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 管理疏忽与风险树 航运事故 致因因素 量化分析 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]