自由贸易协定对中国制造业出口的影响研究:基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据  

Impact of Free Trade Agreement on Chinese Manufacturing Exports:Based on Data about Countries of the Belt and Road Initiatives

作　　者：田祖海[1] 吴雅静 TIAN Zu-hai;WU Ya-jing(School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学经济学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《北京邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第4期17-26,共10页Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：湖北省科技支撑计划软科学研究类项目(2017ADC126)。

摘　　要：与“一带一路”沿线国家签订自由贸易协定是我国现阶段进一步扩大对外开放的重要举措,但是其影响效果如何有待检验。文章选取中国2003—2017年制造业对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口数据,利用双重差分考察了自由贸易协定对中国制造业出口的影响。研究发现,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家签订的自由贸易协定对中国制造业出口存在显著的促进效应。进一步分析表明,自由贸易协定的促进效应仅存在短期效应,自由贸易协定签署的时间越长,对中国制造业出口的影响越小。与此同时,分样本研究表明,自由贸易协定的促进效应在不同合作区域内存在明显差异性特征,相较于“一带”沿线国家,中国同“一路”沿线国家签署的自由贸易协定对制造业出口的促进效应更明显。Signing free trade agreements with countries of the belt and road initiatives is an important measure for China to further expand its opening-up at this stage,but the impact is yet to be tested.Based on the export data of manufacturing industry from China to the countries of the belt and road initiatives in the period of 2003 to 2017,the DID(difference-in-difference)model is used to examine the impact of free trade agreements on Chinese manufacturing exports.The study shows that the free trade agreements signed between China and the countries of the belt and road initiatives have an export-promoting effect.Further analysis shows that the promoting effect is only a short-term effect and the promotion has gradually declined over time.At the same time,the sub-sample study shows that the promoting effect has different characteristics in different cooperation regions.Compared with the countries along“One Belt”,the promoting effect between China and the countries along the“One Road”is more obvious.

关 键 词：自由贸易协定 制造业出口 影响 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.62[经济管理—产业经济]