土地流转政策对集体林地流转的非线性影响——基于政策文本量化的门限估计  

Nonlinear Effect of Land Transfer Policy on Collective Forestland Transfer:Threshold Estimation Based on Quantification of Policy Text

作　　者：张自强[1] 周伟[2] ZHANG Ziqiang;ZHOU Wei(College of Tourismand Culture Industry,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China;College of Economics andManagement,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学旅游与文化产业学院,贵阳550025 [2]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广州510642

出　　处：《四川农业大学学报》2020年第5期633-644,共12页Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJY042);贵州省教育厅高等学校人文社会科学研究基地项目(2016JD011)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析政策激励对集体林地流转的作用逻辑并进行实证检验,以促进集体林地规模经营。【方法】从政策力度、政策目标和政策措施3方面对收集的120份政策文本进行量化,基于全国集体林权制度改革监测数据,通过门限回归模型检验政策效力与集体林地流转规模的非线性关系。【结果】需求型政策工具效力、供给型政策工具效力和环境型政策工具效力的变化趋势较相近,但均明显低于政策总效力。土地流转的政策激励存在一个门限,呈双向影响,即在政策效力低于门限值时对集体林地流转呈正向影响,高于门限值时呈负向影响。而且不同政策效力下农户的林业依赖度对集体林地流转规模也具有非线性影响,即影响系数在政策效力低于门限值时较大,高于门限值时则较小。【结论】土地流转政策强化了禀赋效应,抑制了农户转出林地意愿,政策激励不必一味强调流转,也可鼓励合作,通过生产服务的社会分工来实现集体林地规模经营。【Objective】To analyzethe function logic of policy incentives on collective forestland transfer and carryout empirical tests to improve the scale operation of collective forestland.【Method】120 policy texts collected from three aspects which include policy intensity,policy objectives and policy measures were quantified.And the non-linear relationship between the effectiveness of land transfer policy and the scale of collective forestland transfer was tested by threshold regression model,using national monitoring data of collective forest tenure reform.【Result】The results show that:For demand-oriented policy instruments,supply-oriented policy instruments and environmental policy instruments,the changing trends of their effectiveness are similar;but they are all significantly lower than the total effectiveness of the policy.There is a threshold for policy incentives of land transfer,which has a two-way impact.That is,when the policy effectiveness is lower than the threshold value,it has a positive impact on collective forestland transfer,and when it is higher than the threshold value,there is a negative impact.Moreover,farmers'forestry dependence under different policy effects also has a non-linear impact on the scale of collective forestland transfer.That is to say,the influence coefficient is larger when the policy effectiveness is lower than the threshold value,but smaller when it is higher than the threshold value.【Conclusion】Land transfer policy strengthens endowment effect and restrains farmers'willingness to transfer forestland.Policy incentives do not necessarily emphasize circulation;cooperation can also be encouragedto realize large-scale management of collective forestland through the social division ofproduction and service.

关 键 词：集体林 土地流转 政策 文本量化 门限效应 

分 类 号：F326.20[经济管理—产业经济]