西北太平洋春季热带气旋生成数量年际异常的成因分析  

A Causation Analysis of Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific in the Spring

作　　者：许泽铭 吴敏敏 黄华明 王磊 XU Ze-ming;WU Min-min;HUANG Hua-ming;WANG Lei(College of Oceanology and Meteorology,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524088)

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《广东气象》2020年第5期1-5,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2018YFC1506903);国家自然科学基金项目(No.41776031);广东海洋大学科研基金项目(R17051、P16100)。

摘　　要：分析了1980—2016年西北太平洋(WNP)春季热带气旋(TC)生成数量年际异常的形成原因。结果表明:WNP春季TC数量偏多年具有更强的850 hPa大气相对涡度、更小的垂直风切变和更大的500 hPa大气相对湿度,这些相关环境背景场的变化有利于TC生成数量的增多。WNP春季的TC数量与上一年冬季的Ni1o 3.4指数呈现负相关,表明在上一年冬季出现La Ni1a事件时春季TC数量趋向更多。在ENSO准两年周期演化过程的影响下,WNP春季TC生成数量也表现出一些准两年周期的特征。WNP春季与秋季TC生成数量倾向于反位相变化,这种反位相关系可以帮助我们利用春季TC数量异常对接下来秋季的TC生成数量活跃程度进行预测。This paper analyzes the causation for interannual variability of tropical cyclone(TC)genesis over the western North Pacific(WNP)in the spring during 1980-2016.The result is shown as follows.In the spring of WNP,the years with more TC genesis are accompanied with larger atmospheric relative vorticity at 850 hPa,smaller vertical wind shear and larger atmospheric relative humidity at 500 hPa.The variation of these correlated environment background fields is conducive to the increase of TC genesis.the WNP TC genesis in the spring is negatively correlated with the Ni1 o 3.4 index in the preceding winter,suggesting that the occurrence of the La Ni1 a event in the preceding winter tends to be accompanied with more TC genesis in the spring.Affected by quasi-biennial periodic evolution of ENSO,the TC genesis in the WNP also shows some characteristics of the same period.For the WNP,the TC genesis tends to vary out of phase between spring and autumn and this relationship is helpful in predicting the TC genesis and TC activity in the following autumn based on the variability of TC genesis in the spring.

关 键 词：气候学 热带气旋 年际变化 春季 西北太平洋 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]