河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析  

Analysis on the Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)in Henan province

作　　者：郭小芳[1] 王盼盼 陈伟[1] 康锴[1] 杨改英[1] 李孟磊[1] 赵晓静[1] 杨文杰[1] GUO Xiao-fang;WANG Pan-pan;CHEN Wei;KANG Kai;YANG Gai-ying;LI Meng-lei;ZHAO Xiao-jing;YANG Wen-jie(Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou,Henan 450016,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省疾病预防控制中心应急办,河南郑州450016

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2020年第20期3679-3683,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：河南省新型冠状病毒防控应急攻关项目(201100310800)。

摘　　要：目的了解河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情特征及趋势,为下一步疫情防控提供参考。方法采用描述流行病学方法,对2020年1月21日-2月29日河南省报告的新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊、疑似、阳性检测者进行统计分析。结果截至2020年2月29日,河南省累计报告新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例1272例,阳性检测者136例,死亡22例(均为确诊病例),病死率为1.73%(22/1272)。其中重症和危重症占确诊病例的15.57%。疑似病例确诊率为19.31%(1082/5602)。发病呈现6个高峰,且峰值逐渐降低。重点防控地市为信阳市、南阳市、驻马店市、郑州市、商丘市,占全省确诊病例和阳性检测者的63.27%。波及全省147个县区(84.97%,147/173),596个乡镇街道(23.66%,596/2519)。主要集中在25~59岁(76.02%),人群普遍易感。职业以农民为主,其次为商业服务。早期以输入病例为主,2月2日疫情处于高平台期,之后呈现下降趋势。结论河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情已取得阶段性成效,根据人群普遍易感的特点,在复工复学、恢复生产活动中,仍存在暴发流行的风险,建议根据病例数、疾病严重程度、波及县区数等指标进行区域的风险等级划分,分级分类采取科学精准防控。Objective To understand the Epidemiological characteristics and trends of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Henan province,and to provide reference for the next step of prevention and control.Methods Statistical analysis was conducted on confirmed,suspected and positive cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia reported in Henan province from January 21 to February 29,2020 by descriptive epidemiological method.Results By February 29,2020,Henan province had reported a total of 1272 confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia,136 positive tests and 22 deaths(all confirmed cases),with a fatality rate of 1.73%(22/1274).Severe and critical illness accounted for 15.57%of the confirmed cases.The confirmed rate of suspected cases was 19.31%(1082/5602).There were 6 peaks and the peak gradually decreased.The key prevention and control cities are Xinyang,Nanyang,Zhumadian,Zhengzhou and Shangqiu,accounting for 63.27%of the confirmed cases and positive test cases in the province.It affected 147 counties(84.97%,147/173)and 596 township streets(23.66%,596/2519).Mainly concentrated in 25-59 years old(76.02%),the population is generally susceptible.Occupation to farmers,followed by commercial services.At the early stage,imported cases were the majority.The epidemic was at a high plateau until February 2,and then showed a downward trend.Conclusion The control of novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in Henan province has achieved initial results.According to the characteristics of the general susceptibility of the population,there is still a risk of outbreak in the resumption of work,education and production activities.It is suggested to divide the regional risk according to the number of cases,severity of the disease,the number of affected counties and districts,and adopt scientific and accurate prevention and control in the classification.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 河南省 流行病学 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]