人口集聚对经济发展的异质性影响及作用机制:长三角的证据  

The Heterogeneity Impact and Mechanism of Population Agglomeration on Economic Development:Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：李晓阳[1] 鄢晓凤 肖桑梦 LI Xiao-yang;YAN Xiao-feng;XIAO Sang-meng(Institute of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《西北人口》2020年第6期25-39,共15页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“博弈视阈下农民工市民化诱导机理研究”(71373215);2019年度西南大学人文社科研究重大项目培育(SWU1909034)。

摘　　要：人口与经济协调发展对长三角区域一体化发展具有关键作用。文章基于2009~2017年长三角40个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用动态空间面板模型和中介效应模型,考察人口集聚对经济发展的影响以及这种影响的异质性与作用机制。结果表明:(1)长三角经济发展具有较强的时空依赖性;(2)人口集聚对经济发展的影响呈“倒U”型,除上海市以外的39个地级市目前均未越过“拐点”;(3)人口集聚通过人力资本、城市化和劳动力共享促进经济发展,其中,劳动力共享效应最大。研究认为,协同联动促进长三角区域一体化,制定因城而异的人口迁移指导政策对长三角经济实现高质量发展具有重要意义。The coordinated development of population and economy plays a key role in integrative development of the Yangtze river delta.Based on the panel data of 40 cities at the county level in the Yangtze river delta from 2009 to 2017,the paper uses dynamic spatial panel model and mediation effect model to investigate the impact of population agglomeration on economic development,as well as the heterogeneity and mechanism between different cities.The re⁃sults show that:(1)the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta has a strong inter-dependency of time and space;(2)population agglomeration facilitates economic development presenting a“inverted U”type and 39 prefec⁃ture-level cities have not yet crossed the“inflection point”except for Shanghai;(3)population agglomeration can promote economic development by acting on human capital,urbanization,and labor sharing,among which labor shar⁃ing has the greatest effect.Therefore,it is significant to facilitate high-quality economical development in the Yang⁃tze River Delta by coordinating the triangular regional integration and formulating population guidelines that vary from city to city.

关 键 词：人口集聚 经济发展 动态空间面板模型 中介效应模型 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]