人口与经济协调发展的关联耦合分析——以安徽省为例  

The Coupling Analysis of Population and Economy in Anhui Province

作　　者：戴文磊 张士杰[2] 李天琦 DAI Wenlei;ZHANG Shijie;LI Tianqi(School of Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,Anhui;Anhui Institute of Economic and Social Development,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233041,Anhui)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学安徽经济社会发展研究院,安徽蚌埠233041

出　　处：《河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第5期28-35,共8页Journal of Hebei Agricultural University (SOCIAL SCIENCES)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目:“以人为本的中国新型城镇化道路研究”(编号:13&ZD025);安徽省高校学科(专业)拔尖人才学术资助项目(编号:gxbjZD13);安徽财经大学科学研究重大项目:“安徽省农民工回流的多维减贫效应测度与提升对策研究”(编号:ACKY1803ZDA)。

摘　　要：基于2002—2017年安徽省市、县的人口与经济指标数据,利用灰色关联模型、人口-经济增长弹性、地理集中度和耦合指数模型,分别从人口结构、区域人口与经济发展空间演化特征及耦合协调性两个维度,系统分析人口与经济的协调发展关系。结果表明:人口年龄、文化结构与经济发展存在较高的关联性,而人口产业、城乡结构层次方面对经济的影响弱于前两者;从人口-经济增长弹性来看,总体上经济增长对人口增长的拉动作用较弱,皖北、皖中、皖南人口-经济增长弹性依次递减;从人口与经济分布的空间演化特征来看,人口、经济二者的地理集中度具有显著的趋同性,在空间布局上总体呈"北高南低中部突起"的分布态势,人口集聚与经济集聚相协调的区域在缩减,核心城市经济集聚效应加强,但对人口吸附作用不明显。Based on the population and economic index of cities and counties in Anhui Province from 2002-2017,this paper systematically analyzes the coordinated development relationship between population and economy from two dimensions:population structure,spatial evolution characteristics of regional population and economic development and coupling coordination by using grey correlation model,population-economic growth elasticity,geographical concentration and coupling index model.The results show that:(1)population age and cultural structure have a high correlation with economic development,and the impact of population industry,urban and rural structure level on the economy is weaker than the former two;(2)from the perspective of population-economic growth elasticity,economic growth on the whole has a weak pulling effect on population growth,and the population-economic growth elasticity of northern,central and southern Anhui province decreases successively;(3)from the perspective of the spatial evolution characteristics of distribution of population and economy,the geographic concentration of population and economy has obvious convergence,and the overall distribution trend shows"high in the north,low in the south and prominent in the middle".The coordinated area of population agglomeration and economic agglomeration has been shrinking,and the economic agglomeration effect of core cities has been strengthening,but the adsorption effect on population is not obvious.

关 键 词：人口经济 协调发展 灰色关联 空间耦合 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学]