东亚地区高频频率预测方法精细化研究  

Refined study of HF frequency prediction method over East Asia Region

作　　者：陈强[1] 王健[1] 黄翔东[1] CHEN Qiang;WANG Jian;HUANG Xiangdong(Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学,天津300072

出　　处：《电波科学学报》2020年第5期721-729,共9页Chinese Journal of Radio Science

基　　金：青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室2016年度开放基金(QNLM2016ORP0411);天津大学青岛海洋技术研究院自主创新创业项目(20190201-3);国家973计划(61331901)。

摘　　要：为进一步提升高频(high frequency,HF)频率预测方法精度,提出了一种适用于东亚区域HF可用频率的精细化频率预测方法.该方法在1948—2006年8个电离层观测站的特征数据统计分析基础上,基于太阳10.7 cm辐射通量进行了F 2层OWF-MUF和HPF-MUF的转化因子时变特性建模,应用改进克里金方法重建东亚地区的空间分布.利用中国境内6条链路2015年4月和2018年1月的观测结果,对ITU方法、中国区域精细化预测方法以及本文所述方法进行对比分析,结果显示本文所述OWF-MUF和HPF-MUF的转化因子在预测精度上较ITU方法提升了0.0290和0.0073,较中国区域精细化预测方法提升了0.0034和0.0075,证明本研究可为HF频率预测精度提供技术支撑.In order to improve the accuracy of the high frequency prediction method,a refined usable frequency prediction method suitable for high frequency prediction in East Asia is proposed.The temporal characteristic model for the conversion factor of OWF-MUF and HPF-MUF for F 2 layer is reconstructed based on ionospheric critical frequency of F 2 layer,which was observed at eight ionosode stations from 1948 to 2006.And the spatial distribution over East Asia was reconstructed by the improved Kriging method.Using the systematic observation which was obtained by six circuits received in Shenyang and Jingyang during April 2015 and January 2018,the prediction error of the proposed method was compared with other methods.The result show that the predicting accuracy is effectively improved by using the proposed method.Specially,the conversion factors of OWF-MUF and HPF-MUF for the proposed have significantly improved the average root-mean-square error by 0.0290 and 0.0073 compared with the ITU method,and 0.0034 and 0.0075 compared with China’s regional refined prediction method.This study provides potential support for improving the accuracy for high frequency communication.

关 键 词：高频(HF) 频率预测 东亚区域 转换因子 

分 类 号：P352[天文地球—空间物理学]