城乡居民基础养老金的目标待遇与水平测度——以中国东中西部地区六省为例  

The Target Treatment and Level of Measurement about Basic Pension of Urban and Rural Residents:Take Six Provinces in the East,Middle and West of China as an Example

作　　者：王振振 WANG Zhen-zhen(School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第11期93-102,共10页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：中国行政体制改革研究会行政改革研究基金委托项目“老龄化社会趋势与养老体系建设研究”(2017CSOASRJJKT013);中国人民大学“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”资助。

摘　　要：明确城乡居民基础养老金“保基本”的目标定位与内涵,以中国东中西部六省为例,运用“标准消费人”+“扩展线性支出”组合方法,测算2018年中央最低基础养老金待遇水平以及东中西部地区六省城乡居民基础养老金“保基本”的待遇水平。在此基础上,以物价消费指数为依据,预测2019—2023年中央最低基础养老金待遇水平,以及东中西部六省基础养老金“保基本”的待遇水平。通过研究可知:第一,中央层面,2018年中央实施的最低基础养老金待遇水平偏低,尚不能保障农村老年人“食品”的基本消费支出;第二,“中央+地方”层面,尽管2018年东中西部六省城乡居民基础养老金待遇水平稍有偏低,与理论层面“保基本”制度目标还有一定空间,但是部分地区已实现对本地农村老年人最低的“食品”消费支出的最低保障;第三,初步估计,2020年中央确定的最低基础养老金待遇水平应至少达到119元/月才能实现其制度目标。最后,根据中国的实际情况提出了几点政策建议。To clarify the target positioning and connotation of"ensuring basic needs"about the basic pension of urban and rural residents,taking six provinces in East,Central and Western of China as examples,this paper uses the combination method of"standard consumer"+"ELES"to calculate the minimum basic pension treatment level of the central government and the basic pension"ensuring basic needs"treatment level of urban and rural residents of six provinces in 2018.Predict the minimum basic pension treatment level of the central government from 2019 to 2023 and the basic pension treatment level of six provinces in the East,Central and Western regions,which are based on the price consumption index.The results show that:Firstly,at the level of central government,the minimum basic pension benefits implemented by the central government in 2018 are low relatively,which can not guarantee the basic food consumption expenditure of the rural elderly.Secondly,at the common level of central government and local government,although the basic pension treatment levels of urban and rural residents in the eastern,central and western provinces are slightly lower in 2018,and there is still some room for the theoretical level of"basic protection"system goal,some regions have achieved the minimum guarantee for the minimum food consumption expenditure of the rural elderly.Thirdly,it is preliminarily estimated that the minimum basic pension treatment level determined by the central government in 2020 should reach at least 119 yuan per month to achieve its system goal.Finally,according to the actual situation of China,some policy implications are put forward.

关 键 词：城乡居民基础养老金 目标待遇 水平测度 标准消费人 扩展线性支出系统模型 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]