基于历史地震人员死亡数据的抗致死性水平分级  

Grading of anti-lethal level based on historical earthquake mortality data

作　　者：聂高众[1] 夏朝旭 范熙伟[1] Nie Gaozhong;Xia Chaoxu;Fan Xiwei(Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地质科学》2020年第4期1298-1314,共17页Chinese Journal of Geology(Scientia Geologica Sinica)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2018YFC1504503,2018YFC1504403)资助。

摘　　要：基于历史地震中各个烈度的人员死亡率数据,通过拟合分析,发现这些震例从分烈度人员死亡率的角度具有较明显的差别和分组现象,同组内不同震例死亡率的变化率小于50%。分组特征代表了不同组的震例在各个烈度下均有不同的人员死亡率区间,这种分组特点和组间人员死亡率的不同所指示的是这些震例发生区域的抗致死性水平的不同。研究表明:位于同一省份的不同震例的人员死亡率可能出现较大差别,说明即使同省份的不同区域也可能具有不同的抗致死性水平;而相距甚远的不同省份的震例却可能具有大致相同的死亡率,说明一些并不相邻的不同区域也可能具有大致相同的抗致死性水平。本文基于分烈度死亡率拟合直线斜率所代表的死亡率的分组特征,将全国各地的抗致死性水平分为11级,每一级的抗致死性水平都代表了一组分烈度人员死亡率区间。抗致死性水平等级越高,对应的各烈度人员死亡率越低,抗致死性水平与人员死亡率呈现逆相关关系。Based on the human mortality data of each intensity in historical earthquakes,through fitting analysis,it is found that these earthquake cases have obvious differences and grouping from the perspective of the intensity of mortality rate,and the change rate of the mortality rate of different earthquake cases in the same group is less than 50%.The grouping characteristics represent that the earthquake cases of different groups have different mortality rate intervals for each intensity.The characteristics of this grouping and the difference in mortality among the groups indicate the difference in the anti-lethal level in these earthquake regions.Studies have shown that the mortality rates of different earthquakes located in the same province may be significantly different,indicating that even different areas in the same province may have different anti-lethal level,however,earthquake in different provinces that are far apart may have approximately the same mortality rate,indicating that some non-adjacent different areas may have approximately the same anti-lethal level.This article is based on the grouping characteristics of the slope of the fitted curve of the intensity mortality,grading the anti-lethal levels into 11 levels across the country,the anti-lethal level of each grade represents a set of distribution intervals for the mortality rate of each intensity.The higher grade of anti-lethal level,the lower mortality rate of the corresponding intensity,the anti-lethal level and the mortality rate show an inverse correlation.

关 键 词：地震烈度 死亡率 分组 抗致死性水平等级 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]