我国邮电通讯和经济发展关系探究  

Research on the Relationship Between Post and Telecommunications and Economic Development in China

作　　者：刘珉慧 张辉[1] 张姝[1] LIU Min-hui;ZHANG Hui;ZHANG Shu(School of Data Science and Intelligent Media,Communication University of China,Beijing 100024)

机构地区：[1]中国传媒大学数据科学与智能媒体学院,北京100024

出　　处：《中国传媒大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期45-49,共5页Journal of Communication University of China：Science and Technology

摘　　要：为探究邮政通讯业自身发展,以及它与经济发展之间是否存在某种关系,本文由现有邮政业和电信业城乡差异及行业基本发展分析该行业整体现状,选取1990年至2019年邮政业务量、电信业务量和人均GDP三个指标,利用Johansen协整检验及误差修正模型检验三者之间的联系。结果表明电信业务量与邮政业务量存在长期均衡关系,电信业对邮政业的弹性为0.89,我国人均GDP与邮政业务量存在长期均衡关系,弹性为0.61,若出现短期失衡也会得到及时调整,恢复长期均衡状态。Inorder to explore the self-development of the postal communication industry,and whether there is a relationship between it and economic development.This article analyzes the overall status quo of the industry through the differences between the existing postal and telecommunications industries and the basic development of the industry,By selecting the three indicators of postal services,telecommunications services and GDP per capita from 1990 to 2019,using Johansen cointegration test and error correction model to test the relation between the three indicators.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the telecommunications business volume and the postal business volume.The telecommunications industry's resilience to the postal industry is 0.89;There is also a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's per capita GDP and postal business volume,with an resilience of 0.61.If there is a short-term imbalance,it will be adjusted in time to restore the long-term equilibrium.

关 键 词：邮电业 人均GDP JOHANSEN协整检验 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：O213.9[理学—概率论与数理统计]